WASHINGTON — U.S. dependence on foreign oil will drop drastically over the next two decades as Americans are expected to confront rebounding oil prices, use more biofuels such as ethanol and drive more fuel- efficient cars, the Energy Department predicted Wednesday.
But the long-range energy forecast also said coal, oil and natural gas — all of which produce gases linked to climate change — will provide nearly 80 percent of the country’s energy in 2030, barring mandatory limits on carbon-dioxide emissions that most likely would cause that percentage to decline.
The analysis by the department’s Energy Information Administration projects virtually no growth in U.S. petroleum use through 2030 because of wider use of ethanol and biodiesel and a push toward greater automobile fuel efficiency, including the growing popularity of gas-electric hybrid vehicles.
It is the first time in more than 20 years that petroleum demand in the United States is projected to be essentially flat for years to come, said Howard Gruenspecht, the EIA’s acting director. It “breaks this trend” of steady annual petroleum-demand increases dating to the 1980s, he said. The reversal began this year with U.S. petroleum use expected to decline by a million barrels a day, or about 5 percent, compared with 2007.
As a result, net U.S. petroleum imports are expected to decline sharply, the EIA report predicted, with liquid fuel imports — primarily oil — accounting for only 40 percent of U.S. consumption by 2025, compared with 58 percent last year.
