NEW YORK — Did shoppers splurge on spring outfits or gardening gear in March — or keep their wallets shut? Signs about whether consumers have started shopping again will appear Thursday when retailers report their March sales figures.
But any gains would probably be fragile, as shoppers are still being buffeted by conflicting reports about whether the economy is stabilizing.
While there are some pieces of good news — consumer confidence steadied in March after falling to an all-time low in February — the unemployment rate is the highest since late 1983, which may be keeping people from spending more freely.
After the sharp drop in consumer spending last year, Moody’s chief economist John Lonski says he expects it to edge up in the first quarter as people start to believe that “the Great Depression 2 is not at hand.”
“Consumers, while not very confident about the economy, no longer fear Armageddon,” Lonski said. “Consumers cut back so sharply on spending in the final quarter of 2008, in order to simply maintain their customary standard of living, or approach it, they’re essentially forced to step up expenditures.”
Overall, analysts expect that sales at stores open at least one year, a key retail metric known as same-store sales, are likely to fall for the sixth straight month in March. The decline could moderate, though — in February, same-store sales fell less than expected.
Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, predicts Thursday’s tally of same-store sales will be between a 1 percent decline and flat.
