MEXICO CITY — The toll from the swine-flu epidemic appears to be stabilizing in Mexico, the health secretary said late Tuesday, with only seven more suspected deaths. But an outbreak at a New York school showed it is capable of repeated jumps between humans — meaning it can keep spreading around the world.
The new virus is suspected in 159 deaths and 2,498 illnesses across Mexico, said Health Secretary Jose Cordova, who called the death toll “more or less stable” even as hospitals are swamped with people who think they have swine flu. He said only 1,311 suspected swine-flu patients remain hospitalized, a sign that treatment works for people who get medical care quickly.
The positive news came even as the first two countries announced travel bans on flights from Mexico, the center of the epidemic, and as confirmed cases were reported for the first time as far away as New Zealand and Israel, joining the U.S., Canada, Britain and Spain.
The United States stepped up surveillance at its borders and warned Americans to avoid nonessential travel to Mexico. Canada, Israel and France issued similar travel advisories.
Cuba became the first country to impose an outright ban on travel to the epicenter of the epidemic. Argentina soon followed with its own ban and ordered 60,000 visitors who arrived from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. in the past 20 days to contact the Health Ministry.
Closures ineffective?
Meanwhile, Mexico was eliminating reasons for tourists to visit. On Tuesday, the pyramids and all other archaeological sites were put off limits and restaurants in the capital were closed for all but takeout food in a bid to stop gatherings where the virus can spread.
Experts on epidemics said these kinds of government interventions are ineffective because this flu — a never-before-seen blend of genetic material from pigs, birds and humans to which people have no natural immunity — is already showing up in too many places for containment efforts to make a difference.
Outside Mexico, confirmed cases were reported for the first time as far away as New Zealand and Israel. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the U.S. has 66 confirmed cases in six states, with 45 in New York, one in Ohio, one in Indiana, two in Kansas, six in Texas and 11 in California.
“Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work,” said World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl, recalling the SARS epidemic earlier in the decade that killed 774 people, mostly in Asia, and slowed the global economy.
Instead, epidemiologists say, governments should do more to provide medical help to people with swine-flu symptoms because the virus is proving to be treatable if diagnosed early.
U.S. officials stressed there is no need for panic, noting that flu outbreaks are quite common every year. The CDC estimates about 36,000 people in the U.S. alone died of flu-related causes each year, on average, in the 1990s.
Cordova, the Mexican health secretary, said many of the people in hospital waiting rooms complaining of swine-flu symptoms actually suffered from other ailments — and many of those suspected of having the virus were treated and sent home.
“You can see the total of new cases,” Cordova said, pointing to bar charts that showed a rise and fall. “In the last days, there has been a drop.”
Cordova said that with U.S. help, new testing facilities in Mexico will soon have the capacity to test 150 samples a day for the new strain of swine flu. Currently, the country must send samples to the CDC or Canadian labs, which is the main reason that only 26 of the 159 deaths have been definitively confirmed to be swine flu.
Meanwhile, Cordova said health workers have begun using a less specific quick test and will immediately administer antiviral medicine to anyone with the general class of flu that includes the new strain.
U.S. expects deaths
In the U.S., President Barack Obama asked Congress for $1.5 billion in emergency funds to fight the illness.
“I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection,” said Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC.
In New York, there were growing signs that the virus was moving beyond St. Francis Preparatory school, where sick students started lining up at the nurse’s office days after some students returned from Cancún.
At the 2,700-student school, the largest Roman Catholic high school in the nation, “many hundreds of students were ill with symptoms that are most likely swine flu,” said Thomas Frieden, New York City’s health commissioner. A teacher was among 28 confirmed cases.
A nearby school with siblings at St. Francis was shut down as well after more than 80 students called in sick.
“It is here, and it is spreading,” Frieden said.
Scientists hope to have a key ingredient for a vaccine ready in early May, but it still will take months before any shots are available for the first required safety testing.
By the numbers
159
Deaths thought to have been caused by swine flu, all in Mexico; 26 cases have been confirmed as swine flu, seven of them fatal
2,498
Suspected cases of swine flu in Mexico
66
Confirmed cases of swine flu in the U.S. in six states, 45 of them in New York
0
Schools open in Mexico after they were ordered closed until May 6
