The past year has played rough with the airline industry, with record fuel prices last summer, a deep recession and plummeting business travel.
And now, swine flu.
International traffic already had been hit hard — dropping 11 percent in the past year — when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised last week that people should avoid “all nonessential travel to Mexico” due to Type A, H1N1 influenza.
Airline officials have been loathe to reveal how travel has been impacted. Analysts say it’s too early to assess.
“The problem is I don’t know if this is going to blow over tomorrow or drag on for six months,” said Bob McAdoo, a senior airline analyst with Avondale Partners.
Actions last week reveal a steep drop in customer demand because of the outbreak.
On Friday, Continental and United announced temporary reductions in service.
Other airlines say they are monitoring the situation. Most have extended the period in which customers can change travel plans without penalty.
Continental, the U.S. airline with the most Mexico flights, averaging 450 weekly, is cutting its capacity to Mexico as of today by reducing the number of flights and switching to smaller planes.
The changes are in response to falling demand, Continental chief executive Larry Kellner said.
“We were already experiencing soft market conditions due to the economy,” Kellner said, “and now our Mexico routes in particular have extra weakness.”
On Tuesday, United will cut its weekly round-trip flights between the United States and Mexico from 61 to 24 in May and from 90 to 52 in June.
United’s nonstop flights from Denver to Mexico are being canceled in May. In June, Denver nonstops will resume to two per week for Cancún, Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos.
United’s chief operating officer, John Tague, said the airline is “adjusting our schedule to match customer interest.”
The moves save money by not flying planes at far below capacity, analyst McAdoo said.
Hysteria is to blame for the travel disruptions, McAdoo said, adding, “People are clearly being frightened into this travel pattern by the likes of (Vice President) Joe Biden, and the press has blown this out of proportion.”
Thursday, Biden said he would advise his family to avoid flying, a remark that drew criticism from the airline industry.
Ann Schrader: 303-954-1967 or aschrader@denverpost.com
