If the Rockies don’t make the postseason, there will be one easy culprit. And you won’t believe it.
If the Rockies end up with their noses pressed up against the postseason window, it will be because of their hitting. Or lack of it.
It speaks to just how much Coors Field and this team’s identity has changed over the past seven years that the offense could become the weak underbelly.
Manager Jim Tracy hinted at the problem last week.
“Hitting comes and goes, and we haven’t really had a big game recently. We had a big inning (last Saturday),” Tracy said. “I believe it’s going to come back. We will be fine.”
They better find the throttle soon, or all the accomplishments of the past three months will be remembered fondly, but without any lasting significance. Here’s the problem: The Rockies don’t hit enough and strike out too much when they’re not getting hits.
Don’t believe it? Look at the last 14 games heading into Saturday’s game, spanning series against the Marlins, Nationals, Giants and Dodgers. The numbers are sobering. The Rockies went 109-for-468 (.233), while averaging 10 strikeouts per game. Their opponents batted .276 (139-for-503), while fanning only seven times per game. Even more frightening, seven of the Rockies’ hits came in their seven-run inning against the Giants.
Inconsistent offense has been a reoccurring theme this season, with too many hitters underperforming (Chris Iannetta leads that group, joined by Brad Hawpe in the second half). The Rockies have survived linguini bats because they maximize their hits, pitch well and play good defense.
As a result, they only need a couple of good swings a night to win. That was proven in disastrous performances against the Nationals and Giants that they pulled out because of clutch hits.
But this is no way to thrive in September. The Rockies are putting too much pressure on their pitchers. They are operating with no margin for error. What if Huston Street has a hiccup? He’s burped a few times, particularly on the last road trip, but it has yet to cost the team a game. That could easily change.
What if the Rockies’ bullpen gets out of whack from having to absorb innings from abbreviated outings by either Josh Fogg or Russ Ortiz in Aaron Cook’s spot? September call-ups can eat innings, but having relievers in games in the fifth is no way to reach the playoffs.
It’s pretty simple: The Rockies need to hit better or come Oct. 4 they are going to take a crowbar to the gut.
More on Matzek.
Rockies owner Dick Monfort received a call five minutes before the signing deadline, told that first-round pick Tyler Matzek had accepted the Rockies’ $3.9 million offer. Matzek admitted that he wanted $7 million. But the Rockies won this game of chicken.
“I give all the credit to the scouting department. They had a number they thought he would take,” Monfort said.
Matzek, 18, immediately profiles as one of the organization’s top prospects. The idea that he could pitch in the big leagues at age 21 is not far-fetched, given everyone I have talked to about him.
Managing talks.
The question isn’t if the Rockies will give extensions to Tracy and general manager Dan O’Dowd, but when. Tracy was told when he took the job that there would not be any talks until the season was over. He was fine with that. O’Dowd is also comfortable not having his contract addressed until after the season. Both have been outstanding this season. Tracy has led the Rockies from the basement to a realistic shot at the playoffs.
“I didn’t sense there was tension in the clubhouse before he took over, but obviously there was something,” Monfort said. “Coming out of spring training, I thought we would be really good. They have played that way since he took over.”
Before Tracy can be rewarded, O’Dowd has to be extended, since it will be his decision to re-up the manager. O’Dowd has had a roller-coaster ride with the Rockies since 1999. But he’s never had a better run than over the past nine months. His ability to land Street, Jason Marquis, Carlos Gonzalez, Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel in trades has contributed to this team’s success.
Footnotes.
Hard not to cheer Aaron Boone’s return to the Astros following open-heart surgery. . . . In the latest proof that the National League is inferior to the AL, ESPN threw out this stat: Philadelphia pitcher Cliff Lee had more hits in his first four starts than he gave up runs. . . . This reminds me of a line that Alan Embree used earlier this season, “Getting out of the American League East adds two years to a pitcher’s career.”
Eye on …
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
Background: Drafted in the first round as a skinny Michigan prep star. Grew up a Yankees’ fan. Now, he’s become a legend in his own right, reaching statistical plateaus reserved for only the elite to wear pinstripes.
What’s up: Jeter is a leader. He is the captain. He has won four rings, though none since 2000. But he’s also a prolific hitter. Two weeks ago, he became the all-time hits leader for a shortstop. Not by a Yankee. By anybody. He passed Luis Aparicio’s record of 2,673. Jeter entered the weekend with 2,704 hits, only 13 of which came as a designated hitter. At his current pace he should eclipse 3,000, securing his Cooperstown card, early in the 2011 season.
Renck’s take: Jeter haters are everywhere. Many, in fact, reside in Boston. Get beyond the rivalry and the inherent disgust for the Yankees, and you’ll see that Jeter is having a heck of a season. At 35, he’s an MVP candidate, though I don’t think his power numbers playing in the Williamsport Park that is the new Yankee Stadium are MVP worthy. Not only does he rank among the league leaders in average (.331) and on-base percentage (.395), but he’s improved defensively from a year ago. It’s been one of the worst-kept secrets that Jeter has declined badly at shortstop. But through better positioning and a remarkably stronger first baseman (Mark Teixeira instead of Jason Giambi), Jeter has just six errors, leaving him on pace to challenge his career low of six established in 1998.
He leads by example and by words, spawning a generation of followers, including the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki. That, in many ways, is the greatest compliment Tulo has received — that Jeter is following his career with interest.
At issue
Yankee Stadium numbers should be viewed with suspicious eye
What: It’s time to apply the old Coors Field bias to the new Yankee Stadium. This isn’t a suggestion but a statistical fact. From 1995 to 2001 — the prehumidor years — there were an average of 3.5 home runs hit at Coors Field per game. Through the first 62 home games, the new Yankee Stadium is averaging … 3.15 homers.
When: This trend began in April, with baseballs soaring out at an alarming rate. The Yankees have sunk money into studies to review the wind patterns around the field. The dimensions haven’t changed from the old yard, but right field has become a joke in the new park, with popups and broken bat shots turning into souvenirs.
Background: The Yankees’ new digs are a palace in every way imaginable — from the food to the seats to the field itself. But this place is no friend to pitchers. The Yankees can thank wonderful timing that they signed CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett before a game had been played in Williamsport, version 2009.
Renck’s take: I don’t care that Yankee Stadium is a pinball park. But let’s not give their hitters any more credit than Coors Field creations received before the humidor. Remember how Dante Bichette lost the 1995 MVP trophy because of his power home- road splits, finishing second to the ridiculously inferior numbers of Barry Larkin? Have you checked out the power splits for Johnny Damon or Derek Jeter this season? They have been solid players, but there’s no denying that the new park has led to their home run resurgence. Of Damon’s first 23 homers, 16 came at home. Coors Field gives up more hits, then and now. But don’t try to sell us on how great some of these Yankees are. Won’t work, not after East Coast bias diluted every accomplishment of Rockies’ hitters from 1995 to 2001.
Tracking the NL wild-card race
A look at upcoming schedules for the contenders:
1. Rockies: Have to beat the teams they are supposed to beat during a 10-game homestand vs. Mets, Diamondbacks and Reds.
2. Giants: Are sorry on the road (28-38), where they have Philly and Milwaukee waiting this week.
3. Marlins: Have a four-game home series against Atlanta that could create separation.
4. Braves: Their starting pitching is dynamite, led by the underrated Javier Vazquez. Finish week at home vs. Reds.
5. Cubs: Can’t catch the ball. So they aren’t going to catch anyone.
