NEW YORK — Shoppers limited their back- to-school purchases and stayed focused on necessities in August, resulting in the 12th straight month of declining sales for retailers. But there were signs the holiday season could be less dismal than feared.
Despite the weakness many reported, retailers overall did better in August than analysts expected. Some lower-priced chains, such as TJMaxx and Old Navy, even saw sales rise compared with a year earlier, though upscale stores’ sales slipped.
“It does seem like the consumer is willing to spend if given a great deal,” said Carl Steidtmann, an economist at Deloitte Research. “That reflects a consumer that is slowly coming out of their bunker.”
There have been encouraging reports from the housing and manufacturing sectors that the economy is stabilizing, but any recovery will have to include an uptick in consumer spending because it accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity.
“It’s still weak in the broad trend, but it is considerably stronger than it has been in some time,” said Michael Niemira, the International Council of Shopping Centers’ chief economist.
A monthly compilation of 32 retailers’ sales by the ICSC and Goldman Sachs showed sales in established stores fell 2 percent in August compared with August 2008. That was better than the drop of 3.5 percent to 4 percent that analysts had forecast. About half of retailers reporting did worse than analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected, while half did better.
“The core issue here is pent-up demand; that’s what we’ll be talking about this holiday season,” Niemira said. “I think August is the start of this transition to better times for the industry.”
Heading into fall, stores have ordered less inventory to decrease the likelihood of markdowns. But some now worry that strategy may hurt retailers if consumer demand increases.
Arnold Aronson, managing director of retail strategies at consulting firm Kurt Sal mon Associates, said clothing stores cut their orders by 10 to 20 percent for this fall.
