To a man, the Broncos say they aren’t satisfied with 4-0. Their fans aren’t either. The people want more offense. They want more from their quarterback, Kyle Orton.
Cries for more contradict evidence that says the Broncos have plenty of both.
As the NFL moves further into the 21st century, consider this: Seven of the past nine Super Bowl champions finished 15th or worse in total offense.
The 4-0 Broncos rank ninth in total offense.
To repeat, seven of nine champs had mediocre or worse offenses. The exceptions were Peyton Manning and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2004 New England Patriots whose quarterback, Tom Brady, had increasingly evolved from game-manager to game-winner.
This statistical trend suggests that unless a team has a Hall of Fame quarterback, great offenses don’t usually win championships — offenses that complement great defenses do.
“People are making a lot of our defense right now,” said Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. “But we haven’t won as a one-sided monster. You don’t win late in the year unless you’re playing well as a group. We’ve seen too much evidence of this. A team will have a phenomenal offense, not really a phenomenal defense, they get in the playoffs and one team has figured them out, shuts them down offensively, and they’re out of the playoffs.”
See Dan Fouts’ Chargers and Dan Marino’s Dolphins of the 1980s. See Manning’s Colts in all but one season in the 2000s.
Not surprisingly, a formula equating ultimate success with average offense does have its skeptics.
“That stat makes me sick,” said Jon Gruden, an ESPN analyst on “Monday Night Football” who won it all in 2002 as coach of the Tampa Bay Bucs. “When you say you’re the 17th- or 18th-ranked offense, what are you saying we’re rated in, yards?”
Yes.
“Yards mean nothing in terms of winning,” Gruden said. “A lot of these teams, if you win 12 or 13 games, you probably have the lead in the fourth quarter, you’re probably running the ball just trying to beat the clock and get the heck out of there. A lot of these teams that are in the top 10 are terrible offensively. All they’re doing is getting garbage yards when they’re behind.”
Indeed, nine of the past nine Super Bowl champs ranked higher in points than total offense.
This is where the people have a beef about the 2009 Broncos — the team is ninth in total offense and 19th in points.
Then again, former Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has said he understands why yards are considered the truest measure of offensive efficiency. Offensive scoring includes touchdowns by the defense and special teams. An offense that goes 80 yards for a score requires more doing than one set up on the opponent’s 30 through a turnover.
So why are so many Super Bowl champs average or worse in total offense?
Perhaps it’s more important for an offense to serve as a complement to a great defense. In theory, high-scoring offenses are more prone to turnovers and less about time of possession.
“I’m sure that’s one of the things that worried Josh about (Jay) Cutler,” said former Broncos coach Dan Reeves. “One thing Kyle Orton has always done is protect the football.”
Eight of the nine Super Bowl champs had a positive turnover margin (the 2007 Giants were the exception). Orton’s next turnover will be his first.
The four most defensive-dominant Super Bowl champs of the 21st century — the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs, the 2005 and 2008 Steelers — all had low-risk, ball-control offenses.
A defense never plays poorly when its offense has the ball.
“You can take stats and get them to mean what you want,” Reeves said. “But what is always true is good defense and don’t beat yourselves. Those things have worked for years.”
Eye on …
Brett Favre, QB, Vikings
What: The sporting world’s all-time vacillator is also one of its all-time greats. Favre brought eight touchdown passes, one interception and a 4-0 record into his 40th birthday Saturday and game today at 0-4 St. Louis.
Background: After building a 16-season Hall of Fame career with the Green Bay Packers, Favre retired after the 2007 season. He unretired but the Packers had already committed to Aaron Rodgers. Favre played for the New York Jets last year; retired again, then unretired to play with the Minnesota Vikings.
Klis’ take: Like so many others, I figured Favre was finally washed up after last season. But the recent revelation that he played through a torn biceps in his throwing arm near the end of last season changes everything. First, it’s another example of Favre’s toughness — in case his NFL-record 274th consecutive start today didn’t — that he never mentioned the injury until recently. Second, knowing Favre wasn’t physically right near the end of last year, coupled with his superb play in the last two games against the 49ers and his former Packers proves he probably isn’t done retiring and unretiring.
At issue
Chargers GM speaks out
What: After the perennially overrated San Diego Chargers fell two games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, general manager A.J. Smith went public with his dissatisfaction. “Everything is wrong with it right now,” he told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I’m not the least bit happy in a lot of areas. I’ve seen us be tough and physical to soft and bewildered.” Star linebacker Shawne Merriman’s response: “That’s an opinion of a person, and it’s not needed.”
Background: The Chargers have steadily declined ever since Smith won a power struggle with coach Marty Schottenheimer, who was fired after posting a 14-2 record in 2006.
Klis’ take: Smith is a superb player evaluator, but you don’t replace the fiery Schottenheimer with the kinder, gentler Norv Turner and expect a team to get tougher. And Merriman’s season- ending knee injury in 2008 and Jamal Williams’ season-ending triceps injury this year make it unlikely the Chargers will exchange softness for toughness anytime soon.
On the hot seat
A Titanic flop
Who: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans coach
When: Today against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in Nashville.
Why: The Titans started 10-0 last year. They are 0-4 this year. Almost as bad is how the Titans are losing — through poor defense. Fisher is a defensive- minded coach whose team has allowed 31.7 points in its last three games. In posting the NFL’s best regular-season record last year, Tennessee allowed just 14.6 points per game. This year, defensive woes have wasted the otherwise splendid effort of running back Chris Johnson, who leads the NFL with 434 yards rushing.
Ups and downs
THREE UP
1. Jaguars: Mike Sims-Walker might be first go-to receiver since Jimmy Smith.
2. Patriots: Beat tough Atlanta and Baltimore teams in back-to-back weeks.
3. Bears: Cutler believes he has stronger helicopter than Elway.
THREE DOWN
1. Seahawks: RB Julius Jones: 215 yards in 2 home games; 36 yards in 2 road games.
2. Packers: Aaron Rodgers too mobile to be taking so many sacks (NFL-high 20).
3. Chargers: Shawne Merriman’s next sack will be his first since 2007.
