Fans will remember the Phillies’ elimination of the Rockies in the division series a little differently as years pass, but all will agree on the main point: Philadelphia plays hard, to the final strike.
The Phillies, who start defense of their NLCS title today against the Dodgers, would rather eat a rosin bag than surrender. Their chin was out in the final two games of the National League division series. They were all but begging the Rockies to be knocked out. Each game had dissolved into a battle of bullpens, where the Rockies seemingly had a clear advantage.
Yet, when the closers entered, it was the Rockies who were closed for business.
Yes, Chase Utley pulled a fast one on the umps in Game 3, turning a foul ball into a critical advantage. He felt so guilty about reaching first base after the ball hit him in the batter’s box that he told Rockies’ shortstop Troy Tulowitzki the truth. The ball hit him.
Point is, he reached, allowing Jimmy Rollins to score on a sacrifice fly for the win. One night later, Utley worked a walk with two outs with Colorado ahead, 4-2, bringing slugger Ryan Howard to the plate. Howard promptly belted a game-tying double, and raced home on a Jayson Werth single.
Big deal? The Rockies were 45-0 when leading after the eighth inning at Coors Field until Monday night.
“We have belief,” shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. “And belief goes further than momentum.”
In the Dodgers, the Phillies will find a team just as resilient. Their lineup doesn’t inspire fear, especially when Manny Ramirez became as imposing as a dandelion down the stretch. But these guys have more big hits than Taylor Swift. They lead the National League with 12 walkoff victories.
“I would turn to (hitting instructor) Donny (Mattingly) during the season and tell him it was almost like a dream, that I couldn’t believe I kept doing it again,” Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier said. “But we aren’t done. (Manager) Joe Torre told us the first day of spring training that our goal is to win the World Series.”
The Dodgers won 95 games and earned homefield advantage by taking the series from the Rockies in the final weekend.
That is one of a few critical factors pointing to why the Dodgers will win this series. For one, it forced the Phillies into a road trip not recommended by Expedia. They flew from Denver to Philadelphia — essentially a layover to pack — and then to Los Angeles on a germ tube. That flight will leave them tired, affecting their performance in the opener. And remember, Cole Hamels is not the same guy who won World Series MVP honors last fall. His stuff is very hittable, as the Rockies showed in the division series.
The Phillies have been living on the edge all season, their victories a series of tip-toe steps around land mines. The Dodgers are 20-8 in one-run games at home. Phillies’ closer Brad Lidge blew nine one-run leads.
Lidge showed signs of a revival against the Rockies, but it’s far too early to say he’s all the way back. He appears to be aiming his fastball at times, putting pressure on his new cutter and devastating slider.
These teams are so evenly matched, one blown save will be the difference. Lidge was perfect a year ago, in the regular season and the postseason. It’s hard to believe he can go through this postseason without a misstep. Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, despite his “Iron Man” theme song, is also vulnerable because of a heavy workload.
The difference is that the Dodgers also have George Sherrill to close, if need be, whereas Lidge has Ryan Madson as backup, and he hasn’t exactly taken to the closer’s role.
This series will come down to the ninth. And for that reason, it’s the Dodgers in seven.
Troy E. Renck: 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com
Five story lines for the nl championship series
1. Can the Dodgers handle left-handed pitching?
The Phillies present an unusual challenge with their left-handed bent. They are likely to start three lefties in the series — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and rookie J.A. Happ — just as they did against the Rockies. Hamels and Happ were mediocre at best in the NLDS, but Lee was terrific with his crossfire cut fastball. The Dodgers’ best hitters, however, are right-handed, led by Matt Kemp (eight homers against lefties) and second baseman Ronnie Belliard (7-for-15 since joining the Dodgers). They are a more difficult matchup for Philadelphia than Colorado.
2. Will the Phillies break through against the Dodgers’ bullpen?
As the Rockies know, trying to beat the Dodgers late is no way to live. The Dodgers’ bullpen is ridiculously strong, a virtual Noah’s Ark — two of everything. They have two closers, Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill, and two setup men, Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario. But all have had a heavy workload. This is the fourth-most-used bullpen in baseball, which means somebody they count on will cough up fumes this week.
3. Can the Phils deal with a gulp of their own medicine?
The Phillies vanquished the Rockies in large part because left-hander Cliff Lee proved too much for Colorado to handle. Philadelphia will soon know how the Rockies felt, getting a steady diet of lefties, starting with Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf. Kershaw, 21, and Wolf were two of the most effective starters in baseball this season against left-handed hitters. And both have mauled Phillies sluggers Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.
4. Is Brad Lidge’s revival for real?
The Rockies watched their one clear advantage in the NLDS — the bullpen — vanish when Brad Lidge regained his footing. Lidge recorded saves in Game 3 and Game 4, and his final appearance featured a slider eerily reminiscent of last fall, when he was all but unhittable. Lidge has found freedom in the fresh start that the playoffs have offered. He still appears to be aiming his fastball. And if he can’t get it over for a strike, he will have a meltdown.
5. Will the real Manny Ramirez show up?
Manny Ramirez has been a shadow of himself since returning from a drug suspension. He’s made a career as a playoff monster. He batted .308 against the Cardinals, looking more like a guy wanting a hit instead of a home run. That’s progress. Ramirez and Rafael Furcal are keys to the lineup. If they are getting on, the Dodgers will win. If not, they will celebrate the 21st anniversary of their last WS win without a World Series berth.
Let’s get ready to rematch
Starting lineups for the NLCS, with regular-season stats:
PHILLIES
SS Jimmy Rollins
.250 avg., 43 2B, 21 HR, 31 steals
CF Shane Victorino .292 avg., 39 2B, 25 steals
2B Chase Utley .282 avg., 28 2B, 31 HR, 93 RBI
1B Ryan Howard .279 avg., 37 2B, 45 HR, 141 RBI
RF Jayson Werth .268 avg., 36 HR, 99 RBI, 20 steals
LF Raul Ibañez .272 avg., 32 2B, 34 HR, 93 RBI
3B Pedro Feliz .266 avg., 30 2B, 12 HR, 82 RBI
C Carlos Ruiz .255 avg., 26 2B, 43 RBI
LHP Cole Hamels 10-11, 4.32 ERA, 168 SOsDODGERS
SS Rafael Furcal
.269 avg., 28 2B, 12 steals
CF Matt Kemp .297 avg., 26 HR, 101 RBIs, 34 steals
RF Andre Ethier .272 avg., 42 2B, 31 HR, 106 RBIs
LF Manny Ramirez .290 avg., 19 HR, 63 RBIs, 71 walks
3B Casey Blake .280 avg., 25 2B, 79 RBIs
1B James Loney .281 avg., 25 2B, 90 RBIs
2B Ronnie Belliard .277 avg., 10 HR, 39 RBIs
C Russell Martin .250 avg., 19 2B, 53 RBIs
LHP Clayton Kershaw 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 185 SOs
