Far be it from me to predict the future. I’m merely going to theorize.
In 2011, “The X Factor” will be drawing 5 million more viewers than “American Idol,” which will be a “60 Minutes”-like staple in the top 20, but no longer an unstoppable behemoth; the “Conan Show” on Fox will be the best late-night gamble that network ever made; NBC will be one of Comcast’s less influential cable networks; and Posh Spice will be the answer to a tough trivia question.
If we had a crystal ball handy, we could figure out what’s going to happen to “American Idol” once it no longer has the playing field to itself, and to Conan O’Brien once he’s out of his NBC contract.
The ball is partly cloudy, but suggests much prosperity for both Conan and Simon Cowell.
This week, Cowell made good on his long-standing promise and announced he will leave “Idol” after this season. By bringing his “X Factor” to America, and jumping to that show starting in fall 2011, Cowell accomplishes several things.
First, he goes to work for a gold mine he owns rather than one for which he is a paid employee. (He makes a reported $36 million on “Idol.” Assume he’ll move upward to reap the benefits of owning Britain’s biggest singing show as well as producing it, now for a new continent.)
Second, he leaves the aging “Idol” as the ratings decline but while the show is still a TV phenom. He’s going to be ever more the center of attention during his farewell tour on “Idol.”
Third, he gets to be a hero, at the center of what will become Fox’s new buzz show, “The X Factor,” destined to supplant “Idol” as the must-see of the 2011 season.
Nobody is irreplaceable, not even Cowell. His departure suggests Fox knows it is time to pass the torch to the next big thing.
“Idol,” which has fallen in the ratings, remains a blockbuster, commanding some 25 million viewers last season. For any other show that would be a brilliant number; for “Idol,” the most-watched show on TV for the last five years, it’s a come-down from the average of 30 million three years ago. The ratings have declined steadily from the 2003 high of 38 million.
Without the compelling presence of Cowell, “Idol” will continue to be a profit center for Fox, without stellar ratings. “The X Factor,” meanwhile, will be on the rise.
And Fox will cleverly fill the calendar with reality/talent shows across the seasons: “So You Think You Can Dance” in the summer, “The X Factor” in the fall and “Idol” in winter-spring.
In the case of Conan, the creatively bankrupt and cynical behavior of NBC is coming home to roost. Good for O’Brien for holding his ground, preferring to quit rather than, as he said, participate in the destruction of “The Tonight Show,” one of the historic franchises in all of broadcasting.
If he walks, he’ll take much of the younger audience with him. And where will he land? Turns out this story may be all about Fox.
The downside for viewers is that Conan will be on ice for at least a year due to contract restrictions.
Never forget NBC dug this hole for itself. As Craig Ferguson summed up on CBS: “This whole mess is a direct result of atrocious management by a once-great American network.”
It’s true. NBC chief Jeff Zucker bragged about “managing for margins,” putting a cheaper, less inventive and less competitive product on the air with the intention of losing in the ratings but winning in the expense column. The strategy failed — you can’t win in broadcast TV by sending viewers elsewhere, ruining drama development and alienating late-night talents.
Will Comcast make it a priority to restore quality dramas to the last hour of NBC’s prime time?
The crystal ball clouds over.
Joanne Ostrow: 303-954-1830 or jostrow@denverpost.com
