Spread: Colts by 8
Hash marks: The two rookie head coaches — the Jets’ Rex Ryan and the Colts’ Jim Caldwell — are a combined 3-0 in postseason games. . . . The last time these teams met in the postseason — in 2003 — the Jets won 41-0 as Colts quarterback Peyton Manning was 14-of-31 passing for 137 yards and two interceptions. Manning is 8-5 in postseason starts since.
The Jets win if: They can continue to play with a back-in-the-day, run-first formula on offense. New York has a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez, and it has won two playoff games in which he’s thrown just 38 passes. If they can keep the offensive pressure off him and pound away at the Colts’ defense, they have a chance.
The Colts win if: They can successfully defend the Jets’ power run game with an undersized defensive front built for speed. As a result, the Colts’ opponents ran the ball up the middle 36 percent of the time, or twice as much as they did anywhere else.
Jets player on the spot: Sanchez. This is the biggest game of his young career. He’s stayed out of trouble thus far in the postseason with just one interception after he threw 20 in the regular season. The Colts have speed all over the field, and the passing lanes close quickly. They also test a quarterback’s patience with the safeties deep to take away the big plays, forcing the underneath routes.
Colts player on the spot: Manning. No player is as important to his team’s success as Manning is to this year’s Colts. He gets a blitz-happy Jets defense that will likely show him multiple fronts and bring rushers from every angle. The Broncos were the only team in the regular season to hold Manning to less than a 60 percent completion rate, and he still threw four touchdown passes in the game.
Bet you didn’t know: The Colts, who finished with the league’s worst rushing attack, haven’t run for at least 4 yards a carry in a game since November.
Key matchup: Jets left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson vs. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney. It’s simple — if Freeney is consistently in Sanchez’s face, the Jets won’t win. Ferguson, at 6-feet-6, has the reach and footwork to reel in Freeney’s trademark spin moves, but Freeney sacked Sanchez twice in a December meeting between the two teams when Freeney played just 12 snaps.
The call: Colts 27-13
Jeff Legwold, The Denver Post
