In the middle of the aughts, Rockies CEO Charlie Monfort and I had an annual bet on how his team would finish. Loser had to buy dinner.
Charlie always bet that the Rocks would win the National League West. I always bet they wouldn’t.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the history, the Rocks have never won the NL West. Charlie always bought dinner.
This seemed particularly unfair in 2007, when they went to the World Series. They did it as a wild card, not a division winner, so Charlie’s team played for a championship and he still had to buy dinner.
That was the last straw. Since then, the bet has lapsed. Evidently, Charlie got sick of buying me dinner. I can’t really say I blame him, but I milked it as long as I could.
Still, I’m thinking he might try to revive the tradition this year. For a change, I kind of like his side of the bet. For the first time, the Rocks are a legitimate preseason favorite to win the division.
In order to check my impartiality on this, I ran it by the best friend I have who also happens to be a Dodgers fan. OK, the only friend I have who happens to be a Dodgers fan.
Shockingly, Channel 4’s Gary Miller agreed with me. In fact, going around the diamond, he gave only two of eight positions decisively to the Dodgers. But let’s take them one at a time:
First base: Todd Helton vs. James Loney. Their run production was similar last year, but Helton’s average and OPS were 44 and 148 points higher, respectively. Advantage: Rocks.
Second base: Clint Barmes vs. Ronnie Belliard. Barmes is the better fielder and hit for more power last year. Belliard hit for a higher average. If Blake DeWitt wins this job for the Dodgers, that could change everything, but for now, advantage Rocks.
Third base: Ian Stewart vs. Casey Blake. Blake is a steady, unspectacular veteran. Stewart is a young power hitter who cranked 25 home runs last year despite batting only .228. Miller gave this one to the Rocks on the strength of Stewart’s much higher ceiling, but I’m inclined to call it a push until we see if he can get the average up a little.
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki vs. Rafael Furcal. Raffy is still a very nice player, but Tulo is a horse. Advantage: Rocks.
Left field: Carlos Gonzalez vs. Manny Ramirez. I was prepared to concede this one as a lifetime achievement award, but Miller mentioned — a little bitterly, I thought — that Ramirez, 37, fell off rather precipitously in the second half last year. Maybe that female fertility drug really made a difference. I believe Miller also used the word “horrific” to describe Manny’s defense. CarGo, meanwhile, looked like a star in the making. More partisan Dodgers fans will howl, but, advantage Rocks.
Center field: Dexter Fowler vs. Matt Kemp. Fowler is a nice young player with plenty of upside, but Kemp is a horse. Advantage: Dodgers.
Right field: Brad Hawpe vs. Andre Ethier. Ethier’s production passed Hawpe’s last year. Ethier’s power numbers just keep improving. Advantage: Dodgers.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta vs. Russell Martin. A couple of years ago, Martin looked like a star, but his production has been dropping like a stone ever since. Iannetta had more than twice as many homers last year despite batting only .228. Call it a push.
Starting pitching: Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Jorge De La Rosa and Jason Hammel vs. Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hideki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla and James McDonald. I’m guessing on that last one. The Dodgers have about six candidates for fifth starter. The Rockies’ starting pitching actually looks more reliable than the Dodgers’ for maybe the first time ever.
Bullpen: Always hard to predict, but both have good young closers and reliable setup men, so let’s call it a push.
Bench: Yes, they matter a lot. No, I won’t try to measure them before spring training begins.
I’ve got it 5-2, Rocks. Of course, your mileage may vary. And this doesn’t count the threat from the Giants and the terrific top of their rotation. But they didn’t do much over the offseason to improve an offense that finished 13th in the NL in runs last year, so for now we’ll work off last season’s standings, which show the Dodgers with 95 wins and the Rocks with 92.
Should the Rocks be favored to reverse that finish and win the division for the first time?
You bet, although I don’t know if Charlie Monfort will.
Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297, dkrieger@denverpost.com or
