The fix, I assumed, was in. Ken Buck wouldn’t have driven down from Weld County to do some pre-caucus hand-shaking at an Aurora elementary school if he didn’t think he was going to win the straw vote there.
And so it didn’t surprise me that Buck beat Jane Norton rather easily, 64-27, at the Lansing Elementary caucus site, with a few votes scattered among the other Republican senatorial candidates.
But that’s not to say the night was surprise-free.
Buck spoke for two minutes. And standing before a Republican crowd of more than 100, his biggest applause line came when he ripped, yes, Republicans.
Not all Republicans, to be sure — just Republicans who are politicians and particularly Republicans who are Washington politicians. Or, if you happen to be Jane Norton, a Colorado politician who knows Washington politicians.
“What I keep hearing,” Buck tells the crowd about his trips around the state, “is we have sent Republicans to Congress to change Washington, and instead those folks have been changed by Washington.”
There are a few whoops, but Buck, the Weld County DA who still has to introduce himself to most of the people at the caucus, was just warming up. It’s a well-practiced line.
“And it is time for Republicans,” he said, “to start acting like Republicans.”
That brought the big cheers. The crowd is anti-Washington and anti- incumbent, of course, but what crowd — Republican or Democrat — isn’t anti-Washington and anti- incumbent these days?
Check the Democratic Senate race, in which Andrew Romanoff, the Colorado insider, is running to the outside, against Michael Bennet, who is suddenly shocked by the dysfunction in Washington. And that’s the party that controls the White House and both houses of Congress.
The conventional wisdom will be that Romanoff needed to win by a larger margin among party insiders in order for him to raise some actual money. But I don’t expect much to change in the Democratic race.
The bigger story is on the Republican side, where Jane Norton, the former lieutenant governor and the party-establishment favorite, stumbled in a straw-poll race that came down to her and Buck.
Norton is an insider, with insider backing and insider money. Once, I hear, those were actually considered good things.
Now what I hear is that Norton is associated with John McCain, who, I heard from one caucus-goer, was really a Democrat in disguise — and so, she said, was Norton. Another caucus-goer, Stephanie Howey, told me she was “kind of anti-establishment this year,” and that what she really liked about Buck was that “he was someone who was outside the corridor.”
Certainly, that’s the argument that keeps being made against Norton, that she’s well inside the corridor. She favored Referendum C, and no matter how often or how far she veers to the right — her latest veer: Social Security is a Ponzi scheme — she can’t seem to shake that image or, for that matter, shake Buck and maybe even Tom Wiens.
You shouldn’t make too much of a straw vote, of course. Straw votes are notoriously unreliable for predicting anything, particularly when the primary is not until August.
What this vote says is less about what might happen in August than about what might happen between now and August.
It didn’t matter in the end whether Norton or Buck won. Norton has shown weakness, and it’s an institutional weakness. Face it, a lot of people still aren’t even sure which Norton she is. Whichever one, she’s hardly the perfect candidate to go up against the Democrats.
Colorado Republicans are used to having their candidates pre-selected. But we’re in a different time. And Buck may have latched onto something — that Republicans’ worries go beyond Barack Obama.
The people at Lansing Elementary were not self-styled Tea Party revolutionaries. Nobody I saw was wearing a funny hat. The place was filled with Republican regulars. And they were listening appreciatively to Buck’s message.
“We’re in the wilderness,” Buck told me before the caucus of his party. “And most people think we deserve to be in the wilderness.
“When I talk to people, they might talk about health care or Obama. But that’s not what they’re really upset about. What’s really making people mad is that they know we blew our opportunity. And what they don’t want to do is send somebody to D.C. or to the governor’s mansion who will blow it the next time.”
Buck has little experience to offer as a potential senator and, as a candidate, has shown almost no ability to raise money. He’s best known for making life hard for Weld County illegal immigrants, which is nice if you want Tom Tancredo on your side.
And, if you remember, when Norton got in the race, Buck nearly dropped out. That’s what was expected. Now, after one round of voting, nobody is really sure of anything.
Mike Littwin writes Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Reach him at 303-954-5428 or mlittwin@denverpost.com.
