WASHINGTON — A spike in unemployment claims Thursday underscored the bumpiness of the rebound: Consumers are spending more, factories are making more, but layoffs have not tapered off as fast as expected.
So can the recovery gather much steam if 17 percent of working-age Americans remain jobless or underemployed? Employers have begun to add jobs recently, including 162,000 in March. Yet much stronger job creation is needed to ease the 9.7 percent unemployment rate. And if layoffs were to spike and job creation sputter, the recovery could fall back into a “double-dip” recession.
The odds of that have receded as the economy has strengthened.
But it can’t be dismissed.
Economists think unemployment will probably remain above 9 percent by the November midterm elections.
In its report on unemployment claims, the government said the number of newly laid- off people signing up for jobless aid last week surged 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 484,000. That was the most since late February. Economists had predicted a drop in first- time claims.
It marked the second week that claims unexpectedly leaped. The government cautioned against reading much into the past two weeks’ figures, saying they were skewed by seasonal adjustments related to Easter.
But some economists were disheartened by the report.
Mike Feroli, economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank, called the back-to-back increases “a clear disappointment” and “a puzzle against the backdrop of generally improving economic data.”
