Exceeding expectations, as the Avalanche did in the 2009-10 regular season with a 26-point improvement over the previous year, then with a competitive showing in a six-game loss to heavily favored San Jose in the first round of the playoffs, comes with a kicker.
The bar goes back up.
That’s fine with Colorado general manager Greg Sherman.
“I can tell you that the expectations that we have for ourselves, organizationally, are pretty high too,” Sherman said Thursday at a Denver restaurant. “That’s part of the standard we wanted to return to. With that, expectations will be higher next year, but that’s a challenge we’ll gladly take on.”
When asked if he would admit now that the Avalanche surpassed even his hopes, Sherman recalled a previous interview nearly a year ago in the same restaurant.
“When we sat at this very table, you asked me a question, ‘Do you think things are hopeless?’ ” Sherman said. “I will tell you to a man in our organization, and in my heart, never did I think things were hopeless. Then when we started our camp, and we saw the standard that (new coach) Joe Sacco set, with accountability the key, and the way things started to unfold in a very short amount of time, we really believed very early that we were on the right track. Our No. 1 goal this season was to get this franchise back to where we believe it rightfully should be. I certainly believe that we’re taking the steps in that right direction.”
Recent NHL history has mixed messages about the long-range significance of the Avalanche’s recovery after Colorado’s last-place finish in the Western Conference in 2008-09. If the post-2000 models are the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals, which followed the rebuilding formula the Avalanche is championing and had similar major “turnaround” seasons on the way to becoming current NHL powers, the precedents are encouraging. Those teams drafted superstars and complementary players and otherwise rebuilt with youth. In Alex Ovechkin’s third season, 2007-08, the Capitals posted 94 points, 24 more than the previous year. And they stepped up to 108 points in 2008-09 and to a league-high 121 this season.
Pieces are in place
The Avalanche had a playoff roster, counting the injured David Jones, with 14 players who were 25 years old or younger. That included teenaged rookies Matt Duchene, claimed with the third overall choice in the draft that was one of the benefits of a rotten season, and Ryan O’Reilly.
Colorado’s leading goal-scorer, Chris Stewart, and aggravating winger TJ Galiardi both had breakout seasons at age 22. Even Peter Mueller, who had nine goals in 15 games after his acquisition from Phoenix before missing the playoffs with a concussion, didn’t turn 22 until the opening day of the NHL postseason.
“My expectations are that this year was just the building block,” Sherman said.
The Anaheim Ducks and Tampa Bay Lightning followed up on major turnaround seasons by winning the Stanley Cup the next year. The Lightning improved by 24 points in 2002-03 and won the title in 2004, while the Ducks improved by 22 points in 2005-06 and held the Stanley Cup overhead in 2007.
Nothing taken for granted
Here’s the bad news for the Avalanche: Beginning in 2000, NHL teams have improved by 20 or more points from one regular season to the next 28 times. Disregarding the three teams (Colorado, Los Angeles and Phoenix) that improved by 20 or more this season, only seven of the 25 previous times did those teams improve again the next season.
In some cases, the “turnaround” years followed what in retrospect could be considered aberrational and underachieving seasons. That was the case with the Philadelphia Flyers, who stumbled through a much-derided 56-point season in 2007-08 before getting back to 95 in 2008-09. It’s even not out of the question to say something similar about the Avalanche, which has posted exactly 95 points in four of the five postlockout seasons — with the terrible 69-point 2008-09 season thrown in. But the argument also could be made that the Flyers, and especially the Avalanche, pulled off the difficult feat of rebuilding on the fly.
Also, conditions changed with the implementation of the salary cap for the 2005-06 season, after the lockout and a dark year. Since then, the cap theoretically has served to level the ice.
Restricting the look to the postlockout seasons, teams have improved by 20 or more points 13 times. Of the 10 times it happened before this season, teams increased their point totals again the next season four times. That’s a limited data pool, but it’s slightly more encouraging for the Avalanche than the 10-season period.
Terry Frei: 303-954-1895 or tfrei@denverpost.com
Improvement isn’t guaranteed
Among the 28 times NHL teams have improved 20 or more points from one regular season to the next in the past 10 seasons, the Avalanche has accomplished it twice — in 2000-01 and this season. The majority of teams that made those leaps slipped the next season, but the exceptions include rebuilding teams that provide hope for the Avalanche.
Season Team Improvement Next season
2006-07 Pittsburgh +47 (58 to 105) -3 (102)
2001-02 N.Y. Islanders +44 (52 to 96) -13 (93)
2007-08 Philadelphia +39 (56 to 95) +4 (99)
2005-06 Carolina +36 (76 to 112) -24 (88)
1999-00 Washington +34 (68 to 102) -6 (96)
2005-06 N.Y. Rangers +31 (69 to 100) -6 (94)
2003-4 San Jose +31 (73 to 104) -5 (99)
2009-10 Phoenix +28 (79 to 107) TBD
1999-00 St. Louis +27 (87 to 114) -11 (103)
2002-03 Anaheim +26 (69 to 95) -19 (76)
2009-10 Colorado +26 (69 to 95) TBD
1999-00 Los Angeles +25 (69 to 94) -2 (92)
2005-06 Buffalo +25 (85 to 110) +3 (113)
2001-02 Chicago +25 (71 to 96) -17 (79)
1999-00 Vancouver +25 (58 to 83) +7 (90)
2007-08 Washington +24 (70 to 94) +14 (108)
2006-07 St. Louis +24 (57 to 81) -2 (79)
2002-03 Tampa Bay +24 (69 to 93) +13 (106)
2009-10 Los Angeles +22 (79 to 101) TBD
2005-06 Anaheim +22 (76 to 98) +12 (110)
2008-09 Boston +22 (94 to 116) -25 (91)
2000-01 Colorado +22 (96 to 118) -19 (99)
2002-03 Minnesota +22 (73 to 95) -12 (83)
2000-01 Atlanta +21 (39 to 60) -6 (54)
2002-03 Dallas +21 (90 to 111) -14 (97)
2002-03 Atlanta +20 (54 to 74) +4 (78)
1999-00 Florida +20 (78 to 98) -32 (66)
2006-07 Minnesota +20 (84 to 104) -6 (98)
