WASHINGTON — Crime in the United States dropped sharply in 2009, bucking a historical trend that links rising crime rates to economic woes.
The figures, compiled from data submitted by 13,237 local and state law enforcement agencies, marked the third straight year of declines, and this year’s drops were steeper than those of 2007 and 2008, despite the recession.
“It’s fabulous news, but I would draw an analogy to global warming: Even if you believe the long-term trend is increasing temperatures, it doesn’t mean you can’t have a cold year,” said Jonathan P. Caulkins, a professor of public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College.
Last year’s decline was 5.5 percent for violent crime, 7.2 percent for murders. Property crime was down 4.9 percent, the seventh consecutive drop in that category.
Crime increases during economic downturns have tended to correspond to street-level drug activity, said Richard Rosenfeld, University of Missouri in St. Louis criminology professor. But “we’re not seeing, at least as yet, comparable increases in drug market activity,” he said.
Factors “that often contribute to violence don’t seem to be there,” said professor Alfred Blumstein of the Carnegie Mellon Heinz College.
Northeastern University criminology professor James Alan Fox said the criminal justice system has done a good job of dealing with violence among at-risk youth, and police departments have better technology so resources are used more effectively to investigate crime and apprehend offenders.
“There are a lot of tools that are keeping cops two steps ahead of the crooks,” Fox said.
But long term, Fox said, “budget cuts create significant challenges in keeping crime rates low.”
