TEHRAN, Iran — The evolution of Iran’s year-old opposition movement has been a study in indecision. Should it risk bloodshed and take to the streets? Is the aim to topple the ruling clerics or push for gradual reforms?
Clues about the direction — caution over confrontation, Web posts over street rallies — took on sharper relief Friday on the eve of the first anniversary of the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Word spread that the two main opposition leaders had called off protests for today because of worries about violence. Then a student group turned to the Web to post a six-minute video revisiting the slaying of Neda Agha Soltan — whose death on a Tehran street last June became a global symbol of the post-election battles.
The two events appeared to reinforce the overall narrative of the past months: The intense crackdown and threats by authorities have intimidated the opposition leadership and — without the stomach for more street confrontations — their followers have few other outlets besides the Internet.
Dozens of Web posts and proclamations against Ahmadinejad and the ruling system are issued each day, but it amounts to words against muscle.
The Iranian leaders appear to be far more secure on the anniversary of the election than during the tense weeks after the vote last June.
It is possible that memories of last year will be powerful enough to bring significant protest crowds onto the streets today for the first time in months. But the backpedaling by opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and fellow dissent leader Mahdi Karroubi is likely to be interpreted as another pre-emptive win for the Islamic state and its key protectors.
