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SAN FRANCISCO — A tropical storm will likely avoid the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico this week as the system heads toward Mexico City, forecasters said Sunday.

Tropical Storm Alex was crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, far south and west of the spill, and was expected to continue heading west instead of north toward the spill.

The National Weather Service said the storm was expected to strengthen after it crossed the peninsula and was on a trajectory that would avoid the spill. It likely will reach Mexico City late this week, the agency said.

The weather service predicts the hurricane season in the Atlantic, which began June 1, will be more active than usual.

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