BOSTON — Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, offers this preview of what is at stake in the 37 gubernatorial races this year: Between now and November, the RGA and its Democratic counterpart will be engaged in “a $100 million-plus chess match for control of the foundation of American politics for the next 10 years.”
If that sounds like hyperbole, it isn’t. The Washington political community is obsessed with the battle for control of Congress and the implications for how President Barack Obama might govern in the second half of his first term. But no one at this weekend’s summer meeting of the National Governors Association underestimates the potentially greater significance of the outcomes in the states this fall.
Everything from implications for redistricting to 2012 presidential politics to contrasting styles of Republican and Democratic governance that will be put before the American people will be affected by what happens in the races for governor.
As Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, put it, “It’s the most important gubernatorial election in a generation.”
Major changes coming
Daschle noted that many of the House seats that switch parties this November could shift back in two years.
“Gubernatorial politics, particularly in a year like this, are long-term structural changes,” he said.
Republicans expect to gain seats, but major changes are coming to the states, regardless of the partisan balance that emerges after November. There are 24 states where the governors are either term-limited or have decided not to seek re-election, 12 in each party. In addition, about half a dozen incumbents seeking re-election face competitive races.
Shaping the House
One of the first areas where the changes in the governors’ mansions could be felt will be in the redistricting wars that will break out next year. Ayers said redistricting presents a 15- to 26-House-seat opportunity depending on who controls the redistricting machinery in the states. That alone could offset whatever happens in House races this November.
But the implications go beyond that. Reapportionment and redistricting will affect the shape of the House through much of the coming decade. If Republicans take over the House and control enough governorships in key states next year, they could use the redistricting process to virtually lock in a majority that could last for several election cycles.
A second area where the outcomes will be felt is on the presidential race for 2012. Republicans are determined to create as many obstacles as possible to Obama’s expected re-election bid, and that begins with capturing as many governor’s races as possible.
