How times have changed since the Democrats cleaned house in the 2008 election. What some proclaimed to be a long political reign is already in deep trouble. Governing, it turns out, is a lot tougher than promising. The Democratic core may still be loyal, but swing voters are deserting in droves and hoping for a different kind of change this year.
Predictably, the Democrats misjudged their electoral mandate and overreached. It turns out most Americans don’t want a “progressive” headlong march to socialism. Colorado Democrats are also on the defensive, as evidenced by the decision of their incumbent governor to forsake re-election.
Consequently, 2010 figures to be a good year for Republicans nationally as well as here at home. They’re poised to gain seats in Congress and in our state legislature. Democrats are vulnerable in some Colorado congressional districts and Republican chances look good in the U.S. Senate race and other statewide contests.
So, if we blow the governor’s race, it won’t be the end of the world. John Hickenlooper is one lucky pol. With the GOP field in chaotic disarray, all Hick has to do is keep his head down and his foot out of his mouth. He’ll be wise to take Woodrow Wilson’s advice: “Never murder a man who’s committing suicide.”
Since he had no primary challenger, Hick has had no campaign to be scrutinized, leaving the spotlight directed exclusively on Scott McInnis and Dan Maes. Whichever one wins the Aug. 10 GOP primary will already be damaged merchandise.
The addition of Tom Tancredo to the field makes matters worse. Ignoring his ultimatum to withdraw after the primary, McInnis and Maes are still in the race. So Tancredo has jumped in, too, aligning with the American Constitution Party, whose 2008 Colorado U.S. Senate nominee got three-tenths of 1 percent of the vote. Tancredo figures to do somewhat better than that, but will only divert votes that otherwise would have gone to the GOP nominee. Did I say Hick is one lucky pol? It didn’t look good for Republicans before Tancredo’s entrance. Now it looks bleak.
Tom Tancredo and I have been friends for 30 years. I love the guy. He’s passionate, principled and dedicated, but the public image he’s carved out is that of a firebrand. And in politics, perception is reality. He can influence a cause and get elected to Congress in a safe Republican district, but he can’t win a race for statewide office. He simply doesn’t appeal to enough “moderate” swing voters in our newly purple state. (Denver’s ultra-liberal congresswoman, Pat Schroeder, had the same problem, which is why she never ran for statewide office.)
I don’t know what Tancredo will accomplish by running. Even a Tea Party coalition has urged him to stay out. Perhaps he believes the political planets are in perfect alignment for him to duplicate the upset win of Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey. But Christie ran as the GOP nominee, not as a third-party insurgent. A Tancredo win would be a political miracle.
Republicans had hoped for a white knight anointed by the party to replace McInnis or Maes after the primary. Several solid substitutes were suggested, all good choices, but the rescue plan came too late, smacking of desperation. You could call it a Hail Mary pass — an appropriate metaphor since one of my radio callers even proposed John Elway as the party’s savior.
There’s a lesson here for GOP leaders in future elections. Break the mold. Instead of reflexively backing a party regular with high name recognition whose turn it is (such as Bob Dole for president in 1996), look for some fresher faces. Reach out for well-qualified, bright, younger up-and-comers with no baggage. People like Paul Ryan in Wisconsin, or Josh Penry and Rob Witwer in Colorado.
Mike Rosen’s radio show airs weekdays from 9 a.m. to noon on 850-KOA.
