DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran’s start-and-stop announcements over the release of one of three detained Americans add up to a distinct message: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies still have a fight on their hands within the ruling ranks.
The confusing signals over the fate of Sarah Shourd — whose planned Saturday release was personally backed by Ahmadinejad — underscore the wider backlash to efforts at expanding his powers and sway over internal policies and Iran’s foreign affairs, analysts say.
It also points to one of the main fissures in Iran’s conservative leadership: Ahmadinejad and his allies against the powerful judiciary overseen by Iran’s supreme leader.
The judiciary head, the Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani — who took over shortly after the Americans were detained along the Iraqi border in July 2009 — apparently sees the detainees as his portfolio alone.
On Saturday, the judiciary’s website quoted Tehran’s chief prosecutor, Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi, as saying none of the detained Americans would be released “until the end of the legal procedure” and stressed that Shourd would not receive special treatment despite reported health concerns, including a breast lump and precancerous cervical cells.
“By stopping the release of Sarah Shourd, the judiciary sent a strong message to the president that the buck stops with them,” said Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert with the Middle East Economic and Political Analyst based in Israel.
But the rumblings inside Iran’s power structure have potential resonance beyond the detained Americans. Pressure from sources such as the judiciary and parliament — led by Larijani’s brother Ali — could undercut Ahmadinejad’s ability to fend off domestic complaints.
The list is long and includes a creaky economy, the squeeze of sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program and the crackdown on opposition groups who claim he stole last year’s election.
“More and more, Iranian lawmakers and officials believe he is ignoring them and acting solely in his own interest,” Javedanfar said.
