For at least two of the NFL’s most surprising teams over the first month of the season, today will be an opportunity to show just how far they have come or just how far they still have to go in their reconstructions.
The Rams (2-2) already have surpassed their win total in 2009 and already have equaled their win total in 2008. With a victory at Detroit (0-4) today, the Rams would equal their win total in 2007.
The Chiefs (3-0) are off to their best start since 2003. Now they get down to the business of playing the Colts, Texans and Jaguars in their next three games.
Defense has given the two early upstarts a boost. The Chiefs are tied for second in the 32-team NFL in scoring defense and the Rams rank fourth.
If the Chiefs and Rams can produce more offense, they will carry more than optimism down the stretch. They could even sneak into the playoff mix.
Must-see game of the week
Chiefs at Colts 11 a.m.
The skinny: The Colts seem to be everyone’s measuring stick these days, and the series hasn’t been kind to the Chiefs recently, with Indianapolis having won six of the last seven meetings. But these teams haven’t met since 2007. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, so they had the benefit of extra time to figure out what their young defense can do about Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Kansas City has more speed this year, which is a requirement for hoping to beat the Colts.
The difference will be: The same as it ever was any time Manning steps on the field. The Chiefs have to keep him from controlling every aspect of the game. Manning has completed 70 percent of his passes. The four-time league MVP already has 11 touchdown passes (and only one interception) in 172 attempts. And he’s getting sacked just once per 43 pass attempts this season (four sacks overall).
The call: Colts 28-16
Catch them if you can
Packers at Redskins 11 a.m.
If it’s October, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers figures to be a problem for opposing defenses. He’s had seven consecutive October games with a passer rating of at least 100 and the Packers are 6-1 in those games. The Redskins rank 31st in the league in total defense and 31st in pass defense, so the numbers aren’t kind to Mike Shanahan’s team.
The call: Packers 31-20
Giants at Texans 11 a.m.
Texans star Matt Schaub, above, is one of four starting quarterbacks in the league who have been sacked at least 11 times this season. The Giants are coming off a big win over the Bears, when they sacked Jay Cutler nine times in the first half alone. The Texans are going to need all of the yardage their league-leading running game can grind out to keep the Giants’ defensive linemen from charging forward.
The call: Texans 30-24
Saints at Cardinals 2 p.m., KDVR-31
The Saints have done their business in relative peace and quiet, compared with defending NFL champions of years past. They have not put up the video-game numbers that their 2009 offense did, but their defense has been solid. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is 3-0 against Arizona, including a playoff victory last season.
The call: Saints 27-13
Titans at Cowboys 2:15 p.m.
Both of the Titans’ losses this season have come against teams that play a 3-4 defense, and the 3-4 has corralled tailback Chris Johnson. The Cowboys also play a 3-4 defense, and the Titans need an answer for that, because it’s clear they don’t trust Vince Young enough to let him keep the offense out of trouble by throwing the ball.
The call: Cowboys 21-14
Quick hitters
Jaguars at Bills 11 a.m.
The struggling Bills are tied for 27th in the league in scoring. Coach Chan Gailey hasn’t been able to find anything the Bills can lean on to get them out of their funk.
The call: Jaguars 17-14
Bears at Panthers 11 a.m.
Todd Collins will start for the Bears at quarterback in place of injured Jay Cutler, and rookie Jimmy Clausen will be behind center for the Panthers. The Bears figure to be surly after the Giants dominated them in Week 4, and defensive end Julius Peppers wants to show his former team a thing or two.
The call: Bears 23-9
Bucs at Bengals 11 a.m.
These teams haven’t met since 2006. The Buccaneers will need more offense — they rank 26th in yards per game, 25th in points — to keep any momentum from their 2-0 start.
The call: Bengals 20-6
Falcons at Browns 11 a.m.
The Browns apparently like to keep their games close. Three of Cleveland’s four games have been decided by three points or fewer.
The call: Falcons 24-16
Rams at Lions 11 a.m.
The difference here may be that the Rams have their franchise quarterback (Sam Bradford) in the lineup and the Lions do not. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is out with an injury.
The call: Lions 21-20
Chargers at Raiders 2:15 p.m., KCNC-4
The Chargers have won these teams’ last 13 meetings. Oakland’s last victory in the series was a 34-31 overtime shootout in 2003. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 8-0 in starts against the Raiders.
The call: Chargers 28-14
Eagles at 49ers 6:20 p.m., KUSA-9
It gets lost because the 49ers are struggling to win, but since the start of the 2006 season running back Frank Gore has the NFL’s most yards from scrimmage (7,186). Gore could use some help in this game.
The call: Eagles 23-10
