Key story lines
Mr. Unbe-LEE-vable
Rangers starter Cliff Lee is this series. He’s been part Sandy Koufax, part Bob Gibson in his postseason career, going 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in seven starts. But the Yankees own him, right? Not so much. In four different uniforms, Lee is 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA against New York, including a mauling last year during the World Series. If the ALCS advances to a seventh game, there will be a party in Arlington because Lee will win it. The key to beating Lee is beating his teammates. He is scheduled to work Game 3 and the finale, if necessary, opposite playoff victories leader Andy Pettitte. That leaves the Yankees’ lineup to bulldoze C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter. Wilson and Lewis didn’t allow a run in the division series. Wilson is a younger, more erratic version of Lee, a kid who’s learning how to play the chess match of pitching.
Will Yanks win mind games?
Conduct an MRI and you’ll find the Yankees in the Rangers’ head. New York has beaten the Rangers in nine consecutive postseason games, though it was a long time ago. That shouldn’t matter, but at this time of year a mental edge can create doubt in an opponent. It’s already a huge advantage for the Yankees not to have to face Lee three times. Plus, New York possesses baseball’s best closer. Nobody turns out the lights like closer Mariano Rivera. As good as the Rangers’ Neftali Feliz is, he’s not Rivera. Erstwhile Yankee Jason Giambi told me, “You can’t underestimate how important it is when you know you only have to play eight-inning games.”
Who will be the real MVP?
Let’s say that this series plays out evenly through five games, meaning that A.J. Burnett’s sideshow start in Game 4 — he was dubbed “Wild Turkey” by the New York Daily News — doesn’t leave the Yankees in a hole. If it gets to Game 6, and there’s every reason to think it will, this series could hinge on the stars, Josh Hamilton and Robinson Cano. At some point, one of those two has to go off. They combined for six hits in the division series.
Player spotlight
CC Sabathia, LHP, Yankees
At times this year, the Yankees’ rotation was more like a congressional hearing — full of endless, repetitive questions. Then there was Sabathia, the consistent answer. He has carried this staff. And while it seems a foregone conclusion Cliff Lee will join him in the Yankees’ rotation next year, he has to limit his good friend’s effectiveness in this series. If the Yankees lose a game started by Sabathia, they will lose the series. Sabathia won 21 games during the regular season. He can deliver a big strikeout. And he gets stronger as a game goes longer. Count on CC coming up XL again. Yes, the Yankees going to the World Series is like Jennifer Aniston winning homecoming queen. Deal with it.
Renck predicts: Yankees in six
