LONDON — Technology exists to safeguard the air transport system against threats like the Yemen-based mail bombs, but the cost may be too high.
Analysts warn that the cost of screening every piece of air cargo in a bid to prevent terrorists from downing airliners might bankrupt international shipping companies, hobble already weakened airlines and still not provide full protection.
“In a worst case, it would stop world trade,” said James Halstead, a longtime consultant with the Aviation Economics firm. “UPS and FedEx would probably go bust. We’d have a full-disaster scenario.”
Many countries conduct extensive checks of cargo, Halstead said. But the increasingly sophisticated technology used by terrorist groups makes further refinements extremely difficult.
Authorities “do as much checking as they can in many places, but it’s the danger of these small items that is the problem,” he said.
The problem is compounded by the use of passenger flights to carry cargo.
In last week’s narrowly averted plot, one device almost slipped through Britain and the other seized in Dubai was unwittingly flown on two passenger jets. Investigators were still piecing together the potency and construction of the bombs, which they believed were designed by the top explosives expert working for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a Yemen-based faction.
More than half of the cargo flown into the United States comes via passenger planes, making cargo bombs a tempting way to attack civilian passengers.
As of Aug. 1, all cargo on passengers planes in the U.S. is required to be screened. It’s estimated that the new rule will cost $700 million and require 9,000 employees in just the first year, according to the Airforwarders Association.
Cargo flights departing for the U.S. from another country are handled differently. American authorities do not get details about what’s on a cargo plane until four hours before it’s supposed to land in the U.S. Once it lands, officials physically screen packages that warrant a closer look based on intelligence.
Jayson Ahern, former acting commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, said rules should be adopted to ensure the U.S. knows what cargo planes are carrying before they leave for the U.S.
Having the information before the plane leaves would give officials a chance to flag packages for extra attention.
The Yemen-based branch of al-Qaeda has expanded its use of PETN plastic explosives in the last year, posing severe detection problems, particularly in locations where shipping companies and airlines use older equipment to scan cargo.
Some next-generation machines can pick up traces of chemical explosives, but the costs are extremely high. Swabbing packages individually for explosives is considered the most effective way to scan, but that’s not a practical option for the millions of packages that crisscross the globe every day.
A comprehensive switch to these swabbing devices would create massive delays of everything from clothing to iPods. Relatively inexpensive cargo transport would become a thing of the past.
The cost of these machines would likely be in the billions of dollars and would be impossible for some countries.
“The technology exists,” said aviation systems expert Philip Butterworth-Hayes. “It’s horrendously expensive and will take many years to install at all the various cargo depots and freight-forwarding places. If you add up all the places cargo can access the airside at airports, there are many thousands of places, and to put screening units in all those places is very complicated.”
European airport operators have cautiously endorsed more screening measures but are urging that governments shoulder at least a portion of the costs of aviation security, which in Europe are borne by the airport companies.
