Denver Post fantasy football expert Cecil Lammey is a senior writer for and an “NFL Insider” for Denver sports radio station The Ticket, 87.7-FM.
E-mail your questions to lammey@footballguys.com. Please mention your question is for “Denver Post Fantasy Football.”
Cecil, you are awesome! Can I get your advice on two Week 16 calls? Both points-per-reception format for all the marbles. Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw or Cowboys back Tashard Choice at my second RB spot? Broncos wide receiver Brandon Lloyd or Patriots WR Wes Welker as my second WR? Thanks so much!
—David
Cecil Lammey: At your RB spot, I would go with Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants need this game against the Packers, and Bradshaw is one of their best playmakers. With tight coverage on their receivers, we may see Eli Manning work the checkdown and underneath routes. Bradshaw is a great receiver out of the backfield in addition to being a fine runner.
At your WR spot, I would go with Brandon Lloyd. We saw last week that Lloyd doesn’t need QB Kyle Orton to have a big game. Even though Tim Tebow is not a polished passer, Lloyd can still be an impact fantasy player. Tebow just needs to throw it in the general direction of Lloyd to get the completion. The pass doesn’t need pinpoint accuracy because Lloyd makes the insane catch seem routine.
What are your expectations for Tim Tebow this week? I have been hit hard by injuries at the quarterback position and am considering Tebow over Cardinals QB John Skelton and Bengals QB Carson Palmer.
—Richard
Lammey: I would start Tebow over the other quarterbacks you mentioned. Tebow is better as a second QB in leagues where you can flex another quarterback. But in your case, he needs to be your starter in championship week. The Texans have the worst secondary in the league, so it’s a good opportunity for Tebow to make an impact with his arm.
My only concern is the Broncos coaching staff opening up the playbook for him. They went ultra-conservative against the Raiders last week which held Tebow back. I’d like to see the rookie let the ball fly at least 25 times this week. Sure, he may make mistakes. But it’s all part of the growing process. He can’t improve if the team doesn’t let reins go and let their first-round quarterback light it up through the air.
It’s championship week and I need your help! I should start Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan over Broncos QB Tim Tebow, right? I then need to choose two of the following running backs: the Broncos’ Knowshon Moreno, 49ers’ Brian Westbrook, Browns’ Peyton Hillis, Lions’ Jahvid Best, Jaguars’ Rashad Jennings, Texans’ Derrick Ward, or Cardinals’ Tim Hightower. I also need help picking three of the following: Patriots WR Deion Branch, Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Redskins WR Santana Moss, or Bears WR Devin Hester. Finally, I can pick any of the players you didn’t choose as a flex player. Please let me know your thoughts.
—Jeff A.
Lammey: Yes, starting Matt Ryan over Tim Tebow is the way to go. The Falcons have a huge contest against the Saints on Monday night, and may need to air it out in order to keep up with the high-powered offense of New Orleans.
At running back, I would start Rashad Jennings from Jacksonville as they face off against the Redskins. Maurice Jones-Drew is doubtful for the Jags, which makes Jennings a great play.
I would also start Peyton Hillis here. Yes, he’s missed some practice time this week. Yes, the Ravens aren’t a great matchup. But Hillis almost had 150 yards rushing the last time these two teams played earlier in the season.
Your wideouts should be Calvin Johnson and Santana Moss. The Lions should get QB Shaun Hill back in the lineup, which is great for the passing game as he’s a much better player than third-stringer Drew Stanton.
The Redskins found a spark last week with new starting QB Rex Grossman. They have a great matchup against a Jaguars defense which has given up 933 net passing yards and 95 total points over the past four weeks.
Finally, your flex player should be Knowshon Moreno, if he plays. If Moreno doesn’t play, then I would go with Derrick Ward against the Broncos. Starting RB Arian Foster’s ankle injury is considered minor, but the Texans could use Ward a little bit more to keep Foster fresh. In the event of a Texans blowout, they could use Ward heavily in mop up duty in the fourth quarter.
Hey Cecil, I’ve made it to the fantasy championship with your help. Would you start Tampa wide receiver Mike Williams over Giants WR Hakeem Nicks or Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw this week in a non-points per reception league? Thanks!
—Stewart
Lammey: Stewart, it could be a tough day for Eli Manning and the Giants’ passing game this week, as they face off against the Packers.
Green Bay features two of the best five cornerbacks in the game today. On one side is All-Pro Charles Woodson, on the other is Tramon Williams. They should have good coverage on Hakeen Nicks all day, no matter how the Giants try to move him around the formation.
This makes Mike Williams from Tampa a safer start in championship week. The Buccaneers are playing a Seattle secondary that is ranked 29th in the league. The Seahawks are allowing 259 yards passing per game, with 26 touchdowns given up against just 11 interceptions generated. Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman should have his way with this team through the air.
Hello Cec, I’m in two different fantasy championships and have a few questions for you. First, I need to pick one of these mediocre RB’s to start for me (the Bills’ Fred Jackson is my other starter). Should I start Jets RB Shonn Greene, Cardinals RB Tim Hightower, Saints RB Reggie Bush, Vikings RB Toby Gerhart, or Lions RB Maurice Morris? Second, I need to pick one of the following tight ends. Should I choose the Browns’ Ben Watson or Patriots’ Aaron Hernandez? As always I appreciate your input, thank you and have a Merry Christmas!
—Zach
Lammey: Without Adrian Peterson in the lineup for the Vikings, his backup, Toby Gerhart, would be an automatic start. Unfortunately, the Vikings game is Sunday night, and we won’t know the inactives until after the day games are over. Morris is a safer play but doesn’t have the upside of Gerhart as the lead back.
The Vikings have also commented how they want Gerhart to be more involved over the last two games of the season. Go with Morris to be safe, go with Gerhart if you’re the underdog and hope Adrian Peterson doesn’t play.
It looks like man-to-man coverage from the Bills, so go with “Toasty,” aka Aaron Hernandez, at tight end. When teams play zone coverage, it’s Rob Gronkowski who is more targeted. Hernandez is the better player to exploit man coverage so you should feel confident starting him this week over Ben Watson.
I’m in the Super Bowl this week, and my choices at quarterback are the Cowboys’ Jon Kitna, Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman, or Broncos’ Tim Tebow. This is tough because of the Saturday night game and the Broncos’ possible lack of passing against Arizona. I don’t trust Freeman enough to play him over Kitna, my dilemma has more to do with Tebow and a great matchup for him. What should I do?
—Jerry
Lammey: Jon Kitna passed for 305 yards, two TDs and no interceptions last week. That was his second 300-plus yards passing performance in the past four games. During that time he’s tossed five TDs versus three interceptions. He was without receivers Dez Bryant and Roy Williams last week and still found a way to play at a high level. He’s one of the surest plays in fantasy football at the quarterback position, so roll with him in your championship game.
What’s up guy? I made the championship game and have the following pass-per-reception flex decision. Should I go with 49ers tight end Vernon Davis, Broncos wide receiver Eddie Royal, or Rams receiver Danny Amendola? Whatcha got?
—Aaron
Lammey: It has to be Vernon Davis in your flex spot. Normally, I don’t like putting a tight end at that position, but Davis has huge upside this week against the Rams. The 49ers have inserted QB Troy Smith back into the starting lineup which only helps Davis. Even though Smith is somewhat limited as a passer, he knows how to find his tight ends over the middle. Davis is also one of the best players in the league in terms of his ability to run after the catch.
First off, thanks for your hard work throughout the season. My question is about Steelers rookie wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Have we already seen him take Hines Ward’s place as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 receiver? Do you think he might be a good 2011 sleeper? Thanks, and happy holidays!
—Eric
Lammey: Emmanuel Sanders is a lot like Steelers second-year receiver Mike Wallace. We saw Pittsburgh get rid of Santonio Holmes, but they haven’t missed a beat this year because of the emergence of Wallace.
Sanders was drafted to be the replacement to Ward, and I feel that he’s a great sleeper receiver for next year. Ward has played great for years, but should be phased out of the offense as Sanders continues to develop his game. Sanders has what you can’t coach — speed. He’s one of the fastest players on the team, and he’s fearless (much like Ward) when running routes over the middle.
Couple quick hitters for you this week Cecill, all dynasty league related. First, how would you rank the following wide receivers in a dynasty PPR/return format: Chargers WR Seyi Ajirotutu, 49ers WR Josh Morgan, Raiders WR Louis Murphy, and Rams WR Brandon Gibson. Second, do you foresee guys like Lions QB Drew Stanton, Cardinals QB John Skelton, Bengals QB Dan LeFevour or Vikings QB Joe Webb having any legitimate value in 2011? Many thanks for all your hard work and input over the course of the season. Enjoy your holiday.
—Danny
Lammey: I like Seyi Ajirotutu best on your list. I would follow him with Josh Morgan, Louis Murphy, and Brandon Gibson last. Ajirotutu is a big target with a good size and speed combination. The Chargers could use him as the starting receiver opposite Vincent Jackson next year, provided Jackson comes back as their franchise tagged player.
Morgan is very gifted physically with the strength to break tackles after the catch. The offense in San Francisco has held him back during his pro career, but he could breakout with the coming change at quarterback and head coach.
Murphy has good speed, but I can’t trust the Raiders offense and QB Jason Campbell. Gibson runs sure routes, but he’s merely a backup quality player with low upside. He’s only been forced into duty this year with all the injuries to the Rams WR corps.
None of the quarterbacks you listed should have big value in 2011. But the one that could is Dan LeFevour. The rookie is currently third-string with the Bengals but could get a shot next year if Carson Palmer continues to struggle. He has the athleticism to pick up yards with his legs if the play breaks down, and he knows how to run a complex offense from his days at Central Michigan.
What’s up Cecil? Just wanted to let you know that you’ve done a great job this year. Who are some of the guys that you are targeting to carry in your deep dynasty leagues this offseason? I want to know some players who are buried on the depth chart now but have a chance to breakout in a year or two.
—Anthony
Lammey: I have a sizeable list, but I’ll trim it down to four players. I will start with Buffalo rookie wide receiver Marcus Easley. He’s on Injured Reserve right now after a preseason injury cut his rookie season short. We’ve seen the impact of Steve Johnson this year, but Buffalo has a good one in Easley too. I watched him up close during the week of practice for the Texas vs. The Nation game earlier this year in El Paso, and came away impressed with his size-to-speed ratio. Easley also has good ‘my ball’ mentality, and will fight hard for yards after the catch.
Another player that is on Injured Reserve but has high upside is Browns rookie running back Montario Hardesty. While at Tennessee he was injury prone. It’s the only thing in his game that is holding him back. But based on pure physical talent, I believe Hardesty is one of the top 15 most talented backs in the NFL. He has size, speed, vision, agility, and toughness running between the tackles.
The Browns moved up in the second-round of the draft this year to select him and he could be a superstar if given the chance. Yes, Peyton Hillis is their starter but we’ve seen him wear down this year. One has to wonder how much punishment the former Broncos back can take over the course of his career. The Browns may try to keep him fresh by using Hardesty more next year.
I also have to shine the spotlight on Giants backup RB Charles Scott. He’s currently on their practice squad after being drafted, then cut, by the Eagles this year. The Giants know how to spot RB talent, so put a star by Scott’s name. Remember, years ago a guy named Ryan Grant was on the Giants practice squad. Scott could be a good back in their system because he’s a no nonsense straight ahead runner who uses his incredible leg drive to pick up the tough yards.
Finally, I have to give some love to Falcons rookie WR Kerry Meier. He played both quarterback and wide receiver at Kansas and could develop into a fine WR2 opposite Roddy White. I watched Meier up close during the week of practice for the Shrine Game in Orlando earlier this year and was impressed by his football intelligence. Because he’s a former quarterback he knows how to do all the little things (ala Colts WR Austin Collie) to get open. Meier knows how to square his shoulders to the line of scrimmage to give his QB the biggest target. He also is very adept at coming back to the football and finding the soft spot in a zone when his QB is in trouble. He’s also on Injured Reserve right now, but the guy can play football at a high level.
