SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Ninety wins.
Heading north after 10 days listening to the Rockies’ talking sticks, that’s what my Magic 8 Ball sees for 2011. It is a painstaking distillation of many complex factors too intricate and voluminous to break down here.
In other words, it’s a wild guess.
The Rocks’ questions outnumber their answers this spring, but it seems to me there’s a lot of potential upside from last year’s 83-79 finish, when they got precious little help from first base, third base and two of three outfield spots.
Vegas makes the over/under 86 1/2, but that seems a little too anchored in last year’s finish, especially when you consider the Rocks were 82-66 on Sept. 18 before a dispiriting late- stage collapse.
The foundation is the best they’ve ever had. In Ubaldo Jimenez, 27, Carlos Gonzalez, 25, and Troy Tulowitzki, 26, they have young talent on a potentially epic scale. Two have committed to Colorado long term, with the third, Jimenez, likely to follow suit next winter. Barring major injuries, this core group should permit the Rocks to contend for a while.
In 2010, Colorado got relatively little help from the supporting cast. In 2011, it should get more. Three additions will add value:
• Hitting coach Carney Lansford should bring improvement at multiple positions. In the early going this spring, his influence has shown up in the at-bats of first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Seth Smith, both of whom had disappointing campaigns a year ago. If those two bounce back, they should push the Rocks over 800 runs, the threshold that put them in the postseason in 2007 and 2009.
And that’s not counting on Lansford to make a difference with catcher Chris Iannetta, 27, third baseman Ian Stewart, 25, or center fielder Dexter Fowler, 25, all of whom have the ability to be better.
• Super sub Ty Wigginton is a piece the Rocks didn’t have a year ago, a right-handed bat with power that can fill in at pretty much all the spots where the incumbents disappointed. An early knee injury to Stewart suggests that spot will be third early on.
• Starter Jorge De La Rosa was on the roster last year, but a freak finger injury limited him to 20 starts and an 8-7 record. For his potential over a full season, look to the year before, when he made 32 starts and went 16-9.
At 29, De La Rosa is just now learning to control his temper. As that rarest of major-league commodities, a left- handed power pitcher, he has the ability to give the Rocks as good a 1-2 punch in the rotation as CarGo and Tulo give them in the batting order.
Add Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel and the rotation should be solid. There’s a lot of early drama surrounding Aaron Cook and the fifth spot, but candidates to fill in abound.
So that’s the good news. There are also risks, of course. The most publicized has to do with Iannetta, who is coming off two disappointing offensive seasons and for the first time has no real competition behind the plate.
This issue is overblown. As a solid defender and handler of pitchers, Iannetta’s offense only needs to be passable. Similarly, Fowler is as good as it gets in center field, contributing to a strong defensive backbone up the middle. His offense will come. The bulk of the offensive improvement needs to come from first, third and right field.
It’s not yet clear who will take over for the traded Clint Barmes at second base. I hope it’s Jonathan Herrera because he embodies the intangibles the Rocks say they value and they have more than enough big swingers. He also gives them two switch hitters atop the lineup, a nice luxury. If it’s Jose Lopez, well, we’ll talk about that when it happens.
My main concern is the bullpen. Joe Beimel had a forgettable finish last year, but I still think they’ll miss him. They don’t have a proven situational left-hander. Matt Reynolds or Franklin Morales might fill that bill, but they might not. Management likes young Rex Brothers, but he’s not ready.
The addition of Matt Lindstrom provides another late- game arm, but his 1.65 base- runners per inning last year does not indicate elite stuff. Closer Huston Street’s declining strikeout rate is worrisome.
On the bright side, Rafael Betancourt is a reliable setup man and Matt Belisle could turn out to be the best of the bunch. The Rocks might need him to be.
Put it all together and there’s a lot of room for improvement from a year ago. Playing in the same division as the Giants, I doubt that 90 wins gets the Rocks their first division title, but it puts them in the wild-card hunt. And if things fall their way, they could do better.
Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297, dkrieger@denverpost.com or
