TUCSON — Only four out of 104 have ever done it. Yet those plucky No. 15 seeds have teased us and seduced us and thrilled us and, occasionally, shocked us. Every few years they have left us glued to the TV watching an unknown team with unknown players show us why we watch sports at all.
It doesn’t happen often. Against No. 2 seeds in NCAA Tournament play, they are 4-100. Can Northern Colorado be No. 5?
Yes, it can.
Colorado State coach Tim Miles matched his team against sixth-ranked San Diego State twice this season, losing the Fort Collins game in the last two seconds. CSU beat UNC 75-61 in December. Miles said UNC can win its NCAA Tournament debut today.
“If I’m Northern Colorado, this is a matchup I look forward to,” Miles said Wednesday. “San Diego State is hard to beat, but Northern Colorado is getting a good opportunity. Just play with a pace in which you won’t get run off the floor, and rebound.”
UNC (21-10) is a 16-point underdog against San Diego State (32-2) today in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. There’s a good reason. Besides all of the Aztecs’ obvious strengths — forward Kawhi Leonard’s overall greatness, five returning starters, rebounding dominance — their biggest strength is defense. The Aztecs have held opponents to 39.6 percent shooting, including 30.9 percent shooting on 3-pointers. Both figures lead the Mountain West Conference.
“First of all,” Miles said, “it’s hard to score on them. They block a shot and turn it into a fast break. You can never put a run together. You score one or two, then go three or four possessions without one.”
To combat that, UNC coach B.J. Hill has identified three items necessary for the Bears to have a shot at a monumental upset:
Win the battle of the boards
The Aztecs are plus-6.7 in rebounding, with Leonard’s 10.7 per-game average ranking ninth nationally. During his news conference Wednesday, Leonard held up one of his huge hands. It’s 10 inches long. It’s the size of a catcher’s mitt — which comes in handy under the boards.
“I can grab a rebound, palm it with one hand, then pass the ball with one hand,” said Leonard, a 6-foot-7, 225-pound sophomore.
Hill has a team of scrappers that led the Big Sky in rebounding this season without a huge inside presence. Also, CSU out-rebounded the Aztecs in both their meetings this year. “That’s their best offense,” Miles said of the Aztecs. “It’s like volleyball. The ball’s in the air and it’s tip, tip, tip.”
Show some patience
Like any underdog, the Bears must limit the Aztecs’ possessions. UNC led the Big Sky in scoring (averaging 72.2 points), but the Bears can’t allow long rebounds to turn into easy San Diego State transition baskets.
“They don’t want to get into a running match,” Miles said.
“We’ve had some issues with patience this year just because we’ve got a lot of guys that shoot the ball well,” said UNC forward Neal Kingman. “So if we get someone open on one pass, they’re taking the shot, which isn’t a bad thing. But in a game like this, it’s giving up good shots to get great shots.”
Get back on defense
San Diego State has too much athleticism for UNC in a fast-paced game. If the Bears get back on defense, they will force the Aztecs into a half-court game and give themselves a shot if they’re shooting well.
When the Aztecs go cold, they often get frostbite. Eleven times this season, they shot under 25 percent from behind the 3-point arc. That includes some major clunkers: 0-for-10 against Cal Poly, 2-for-18 against CSU and 4-for-22 against Texas Christian.
Most teams play a 2-3 zone defense and hope the Aztecs miss. One problem: UNC rarely plays a zone.
“It’s not what we hang our hat on,” Kingman said. “But when it comes to tournament time, you’ve got to make adjustments, just like every other team.”
John Henderson: 303-954-1299 or jhenderson@denverpost.com
