WASHINGTON — U.S. officials are becoming increasingly resigned to the possibility of a protracted stalemate in Libya, with rebels retaining control of the eastern half of the divided country but lacking the muscle to drive Moammar Khadafy from power.
Such a deadlock — perhaps backed by a formal cease-fire agreement — could help ensure the safety of Libyan civilians caught in the crossfire between the warring sides. But it also could dramatically expand the financial and military commitments by the U.S. and allied countries that have intervened in the 6-week-old conflict, according to U.S. officials familiar with planning for the Libyan operation.
New evidence of a possible impasse emerged Friday as an opposition spokesman called publicly for a cease-fire that would halt the fighting and essentially freeze the battle lines. The Libyan government rejected the proposal, saying it would not “withdraw from our own cities.”
At the same time, British officials privately disclosed a recent visit to London by a senior aide to one of Khadafy’s sons, prompting new speculation that those close to the Libyan leader were exploring ways to end the fighting.
Khadafy loyalists continued to pound rebel fighters in the key oil hub of Brega, a town claimed by anti-government forces less than a week ago. Yet despite repeated setbacks in recent days, intelligence assessments suggest that the rebels, with continuing NATO air support, are capable now of maintaining control of strongholds such as Benghazi as well as key oil fields in eastern Libya, according to two U.S. officials privy to classified reports from the region who agreed to discuss them only on the condition of anonymity.
U.S. analysts have concluded that Khadafy isn’t likely to step aside voluntarily, despite recent defections by top aides. And he is not likely to be driven anytime soon from his Tripoli base, where he has surrounded himself with highly paid fighters and tribal kinsmen who remain fiercely loyal, the officials said.
One likened the current conflict to an evenly matched football game, with two sides skirmishing over a few yards in midfield.
“Neither side seems capable of moving the ball down the field,” said the U.S. official. “It is also true that neither side has endless resources.”
A stalemate could mean an open-ended mission for the coalition of NATO and Arab countries now enforcing the no-fly zone over Libya, increasing both the financial and political costs for the participants. But analysts are increasingly confident that Khadafy can be largely contained within a divided Libya, unable to significantly threaten his neighbors and gradually weakening over time.
“He remains a danger, . . . but over time, he could be squeezed,” said a second U.S. official familiar with intelligence assessments. While it is possible that Khadafy could be assassinated or overthrown, he maintains an elaborate, multilayered personal security system that has protected him for decades. “By all accounts, he is very paranoid, and he will fend for his own survival,” the official said.
U.S. officials and independent analysts say Khadafy has been badly weakened by defections, airstrikes and a freeze on his foreign-held assets, and he has few allies outside of Latin America.
With their proposal for a cease-fire, Libyan rebels appeared to acknowledge their inability to prevail militarily. A spokesman for the opposition offered to halt fighting if Khadafy would withdraw his troops from Libyan cities and allow people to speak freely.
“We are seeking immediate withdrawal of Khadafy forces around and inside cities to give Libyan people the freedom to choose,” said Mustafa Abdel Jalil, president of the opposition’s provisional council. “Our main aim is to remove the siege from the cities,” he said at a news conference with a United Nations envoy.
Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim dismissed the offer.
“If this is not mad, then I don’t know what is. We will not leave our cities,” Ibrahim said, according to Reuters news service.
In Tripoli, meanwhile, heavy gunfire erupted before dawn Friday as tensions rose in the capital following rumors that other government officials were preparing to join Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa in defecting from Khadafy’s government.
Koussa was the most senior Khadafy minister to abandon the regime, and his defection in London on Wednesday prompted appeals by U.S. and British officials for other top figures to follow him into exile. But there were no new reports Friday of defections.
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