So, George, you know there are NBA experts who think a team can’t win in the playoffs without an all-star, right?
“They’re crazy,” Nuggets coach George Karl passionately said, like some steadfast John Grisham protagonist whom no one believes. “They’re experts who aren’t experts. Ask any coach in the NBA if they’d rather have a team that plays well or a superstar. I think they’re going to take team, every time.”
The NBA playoffs begin today — the Nuggets tip off Sunday at Oklahoma City — and the favorites are bolstered by fans’ favorite players.
The Bulls, tops in the Eastern Conference, have flashy point guard Derrick Rose, likely to win league MVP honors. The Lakers have perennial all-stars Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. Miami? Shoot, few teams have had more star power than the supergroup of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. And even the Thunder, from little ol’ Oklahoma City, have major star-wattage with Russell Westbrook, the all-star point guard, and Kevin Durant, who might be the best scorer of his generation.
And then there are the Nuggets, 18-7 since trading its two stars — Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups — but without any all-stars. If you asked five people who the best player on the Nuggets is, you might get five different answers.
But folks like Karl — and even, gasp, some experts — believe the Nuggets have the makeup to make a playoff run that will make heads turn.
“I think more teams have got to get the mind-set of what Denver’s doing,” former NBA all-star forward, coach and executive Kevin McHale said this week on a conference call. “Maybe Denver will become kind of the blueprint for a lot of teams who say, ‘We’re going to get a bunch of good players and have healthy, internal competition.’ They’re all playing with a purpose. That’s going to be a fun series.
“Basketball is really a fun sport. I might play on a team where none of us five guys could beat the five guys we’re playing in a game of one-on-one, but all five of us, collectively, can beat their team. And that’s what Denver is banking on.”
No-stars option rare experiment
Since 1980, every NBA champion has had at least one all-star, and many have had multiple all-stars. The makeup of every championship team has been two huge stars and a bunch of talented guys who embrace secondary roles.
Yes, there has been one aberration, one sign of hope for the starless Nuggets in these playoffs. That team was the 2004 Detroit Pistons, whose lone all-star, Ben Wallace, got the start almost by default. He was elected the starter and there weren’t really any other great true centers in the East that year.
But look at that Pistons squad. No, they didn’t have Kobe or Shaq, but Wallace was the best defensive player in basketball, Richard Hamilton was an explosive scorer, Chauncey Billups was becoming a top-flight point guard, Rasheed Wallace was a double-double threat and Tayshaun Prince was a heck of a “fifth guy.”
Still, as NBA-TV analyst Greg Anthony said: “The Detroit Pistons won without having an all-star, but they won with all-star ability. I think Denver potentially has that, but we won’t know until the postseason.
“I don’t know that they can beat Oklahoma City in a seven-game series, but I’ll say this — they have very good talent and have a tremendous coach in George Karl. I played for him twice, and there’s nobody who does more in terms of getting everything out of his talent than George does.”
Perhaps the most important Nugget in this series will be George Karl. How will he handle his rotation? Does he shorten his bench? Does he start two point guards?
Karl has said leashes will be short on erratic players such as J.R. Smith. How will Karl balance 10 good players and find five great ones?
“As much talent as Denver has, you can make the argument that two of the best players in the game play for Oklahoma City,” Greg Anthony said. “I’ve always been of the belief that in basketball, unlike any other team sport, one player can have the greatest impact, so the star power could end up being the difference in the series.”
Statistics favor Nuggets
On a computer screen in an Indiana University office, there’s hope for the Nuggets.
Professor Wayne Winston sees basketball as one big math problem. The author of “Mathletics” and personal stat guru for Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Winston breaks down the NBA in fascinating ways, notably by finding how each team would do against the “average” NBA team, factoring in points scored and strength of schedule.
“Who’s played the best in the league since the trade deadline?” Winston asked aloud. “Most people would say the Bulls. But since the trade, the Nuggets have played 10 points better than the average team, the best in the league.”
Wait, how did you figure that out, prof?
“If they played an average team,” Winston said, “you’d expect them to win by 10 points. I looked at the score of every game since the trade and tried to figure out what set of numbers would best figure out the outcomes of the games. As you plug it in, the Nuggets are 11 points better than average than all the other numbers. I actually gave that to my class as a homework assignment yesterday.”
No, Winston is not declaring Denver will win the West, but he is curious to see whether the Nuggets’ post-trade success will translate into postseason success.
He said Denver’s best adjusted-plus-minus player is Raymond Felton (plus-eight) and that when Felton and fellow point guard Ty Lawson play together, the Nuggets play 24 points better than average per 48 minutes (adjusted for strength of opponent).
Moreover, by playing Nene with the Felton-Lawson duo, Winston said, “the Nuggets play an amazing 31 points better than average. Denver should always close games with these three on the court (and, more often than not, Karl does).
“Yes, it’s only one series. But this series is a litmus test. Everybody thinks that star players can step it up when they need to, and I sort of think that’s true. So a team concept may max out in the regular-season performance.”
Perhaps Golden State coach Keith Smart best summed up the danger that is Denver.
When asked who he thinks the Nuggets’ best player is, Smart responded: “The Nuggets. I wouldn’t say there is one. The way they are sharing the basketball, any one of those guys on any given night can hurt you and beat you.”
Benjamin Hochman: 303-954-1294 or bhochman@denverpost.com
