The numbers aren’t pretty. There are no two ways about it. In winning the regular season series between the two teams 3-1, Oklahoma City outscored (106.5-100.3), outrebounded (44.5-38.8), had more assists (20.8-17.3) and averaged fewer turnovers (13.5-10.5) than the Nuggets. Yes, it is an uphill climb for the Nuggets against the favored Thunder. But other factors suggest this could be closer than many think. These are the new Nuggets, after all, a bunch with heart, soul and an affinity for team ball. And yes, they’re pretty good. Game on.
Guards
Good case of the quicks.
This, essentially, is two — or even three — against one. Russell Westbrook is a burgeoning superstar, the player who makes the Thunder roll. His game is more transition and getting to the rim, but he’s been known to make a big shot late in games. The Nuggets counter with a trio — Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton at point guard, Arron Afflalo at shooting guard. Lawson and Felton not only will need to slow down Westbrook, but also combine to equal or exceed his production throughout the series. OKC’s Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive-minded guard who will chip in when need be.
Edge: Even
Forwards
Big men, big challenge.
Kenyon Martin will get the lion’s share of the duty on Kevin Durant, who averaged 31.5 points on 48.8 percent shooting, 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists against the Nuggets in the four regular-season matchups. The Nuggets need Danilo Gallinari to be big in the series. He averaged 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds against OKC in games with the Nuggets and Knicks. Thunder forward Serge Ibaka is one of the more underrated players in the league.
Edge: Oklahoma City
Centers
Go for the TKO.
Ring the bell. Nene vs. Kendrick Perkins could turn out to be as volatile a matchup as there is in the series. Perkins is an agitator. He’ll bump and elbow and hard-foul his way into most any player’s head, but it so happens he’s already done so with Nene in the last couple of regular-season matchups. The winner here is the player who imposes his game most on the other: Nene is a movement guy; Perkins is a wrestler.
Edge: Nuggets
Bench
Quality reserves.
The Nuggets’ bench was thoroughly whipped in the season series. J.R. Smith averaged just 6.5 points on 26 percent shooting in four games against OKC in the regular season. The return of Chris Andersen helps, as does the presence of Wilson Chandler, who, when healthy, can easily put 15, 20 points on the board. So, there’s depth. The Thunder counters with James Harden, a highly productive sub who essentially is the third scoring option on the team. Daequan Cook is a 3-point sniper, Nazr Mohammed is a capable big man and Eric Maynor is solid as Westbrook’s backup.
Edge: Even
Coaches
Student vs. teacher.
Scott Brooks learned much of what he knows from George Karl, among other coaches. Now Brooks has developed into one of the NBA’s best head coaches, helping take the former Seattle SuperSonics to new heights in Oklahoma City. Karl is the veteran (1,036 wins) and knows the tricks of the playoff trade.
Edge: Nuggets
Prediction
Thunder in six.
Chris Dempsey: 303-954-1279 or cdempsey@denverpost.com
