BOULDER — During two memorable years as a CU basketball player, perhaps the most underrated part of Alec Burks’ game was his decision-making on the court.
Thursday afternoon he announced another smart decision, this one off the court, although you might have to be a Warren Buffett disciple to understand why.
“What I think it comes down to is risk/reward,” CU coach Tad Boyle said. “It takes me back to my investment days.”
Burks said he was coming back to CU for his junior year until a series of meetings Wednesday changed his mind. Among them were conversations with agents who represent NBA players.
No doubt they told him what league executives already know: The fear of an NBA lockout has thinned out the 2011 draft class to the point that Burks’ stock is higher than it’s ever been — and higher than it probably ever will be again.
Sell high, they say. That’s what Burks is doing.
A number of teams had Burks rated about the 20th-best draft prospect before players such as Harrison Barnes of North Carolina, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State and Perry Jones of Baylor decided to go back to school rather than risk sitting out a year because of an NBA labor dispute.
Even lesser-known players such as Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt have recently announced they will forgo the draft. Take these and other names off the board and Burks moves up to the bottom of the lottery — the top 14 picks — and a few analysts have him higher than that.
In short, the very thing that might have kept Burks in school — the prospect of twiddling his thumbs at home next winter while his CU teammates are playing in the Pac-12 — has increased his draft value on a one-time basis to the highest position he is likely to see. Draft position, in turn, determines the size of an NBA rookie contract, and one of Burks’ top priorities is to provide financial security for his mother, Dina.
“I felt like a lot of top players that might have been in front of me or behind me decided to come back to school, so I felt like it was a perfect time for me to come out,” he explained.
Some will argue that if Burks improved during his junior year, his draft stock might rise with his play, but veteran NBA hands say that’s unlikely for two reasons.
First, the 2012 draft is expected to be loaded with a new crop of one-and-done freshman phenoms in addition to the players who would have come out this year if not for the pending lockout.
Second, NBA scouts tend to devalue players the longer they stay in college. This may seem perverse, but scouts assume the best players are gone after a year or two. They also think pro prospects lose valuable time playing basketball part-time in college.
Educators and others who preach the value of learning for its own sake will certainly disagree, but this practical fact remains: Most kids go to college to get a good job. Alec Burks is in a position to get a very good job, thanks to two years at CU in which he developed from a marginal Division I prospect into a star in a major conference.
“Part of coming to this campus is following your dreams,” Boyle said. “And whether you’re a basketball player or if you’re a chemical engineer or whatever the case may be, a pre-med major, you want to follow your dreams. Alec’s dream has been to play in the NBA, and he’s realized that.”
His departure is certainly a blow to Boyle’s program, which Burks helped bring to life. But Boyle has scrupulously looked out for Burks’ interests rather than his own, which will serve him and CU well in the living rooms of blue-chip recruits going forward.
Is Burks ready for the NBA? The answer is no. He has the body of a college kid, not an NBA player.
One talent scout compared him to Larry Hughes, another willowy combo guard who entered the draft in 1998 after one year of college and was the eighth overall pick. Hughes will never be in the Hall of Fame, but he played 12 seasons in the NBA and made about $65 million.
“The rewards are pretty obvious,” Boyle said. “I think if you took money out of the equation, it would be a pretty simple answer. But money’s money. And you’re talking about a situation where Alec can put himself on a course to take care of himself and his family for years to come. It’s hard to begrudge anybody for taking an opportunity who’s worked as hard as he’s worked.”
Boyle and Burks teamed to put CU hoops back on the map this season. And the university can be proud of the head on this kid’s shoulders as he leaves after two years. Like it or not, his assessment of the market realities is on the money.
Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297, dkrieger@denverpost.com or
