Today’s question about the Broncos comes from Manuel Garcia in Colorado Springs. Send your questions via e-mail to jlegwold@denverpost.com.
Q: With all this talk about trading down, why not just pick high to increase your chances of a franchise player and pick well with the remaining picks? Yes, trading down increases your picks, but as we have learned in recent years, what does it matter, if the picks are not good? With a few “can’t miss” defensive players, follow the process that gives you the best chances, chances being the operative word.
A: Manuel, there is a long history in the NFL draft of teams that got in trouble drafting solely for need. And the trouble only gets deeper, more quickly, the higher on the board you do it.
To draft for need means a team took a lesser-ranked player on its board above a higher one to simply fill a roster hole at that moment. The Broncos, for example, took tight end Richard Quinn at least two rounds ahead of where most teams had him in the 2009 draft and reached on cornerback Perrish Cox in last year’s draft.
If two players are tied on a team’s draft board, then take the need player. But at the top, in the land of the elite prospects where the Broncos reside in this draft, those players aren’t going to be tied.
The cost of a mistake is too great in regards to the potential contract as well as in the court of public opinion. So teams will clearly define the top of the board when they stack the players.
Trading down means surrendering the place where the Broncos could get one of the top five or six players in the draft in order to acquire more picks. That’s always a risk because they will have exited the spot to get one of the draft’s best players in order to get one or two or three of the draft’s lesser players.
Teams can hit in all rounds — that’s part of being successful — but there is a clear difference, for the most part, in terms of physical talent found among the players at the top of the board versus the others. When the misses do happen on a top five player, the busts are usually an injury problem or a character/work ethic issue. It’s not like the entire league whiffed on the guy’s physical talent.
There is a segment of people who believe the Broncos should take a defensive tackle at No. 2, no matter who else is available. That’s picking for need.
It also doesn’t take into account that coach John Fox believes the team could line up Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers and Kevin Vickerson in three of the four spots up front right now in their 4-3 and that would compare favorably to many teams. They were quick to re-sign Vickerson after Fox and vice president John Elway got settled in their new jobs.
Fox also believes Ayers will be productive in the 4-3. Fox went to Ayers’ pro day in Knoxville, Tenn., before the ’09 draft and worked Ayers out as a left defensive end, which is where he will now play.
The Broncos know they need some pop in the defensive line, but they don’t consider the situation as dire as some others do. Maybe they’re wrong, but with this being the deepest draft in some time in the defensive line, the Broncos also believe they could get defensive line help later, down the board.
And what they see as a need may not be how the rest of us see it. The best move is to stay put at No. 2 and use the highest draft pick in the franchise’s history on one of the most talented players in this draft, no matter what position he plays.
That increases the odds of success.
Jeff Legwold: 303-954-2359 or jlegwold@denverpost.com
