TORONTO — Canadians voted Monday in an election marked by a late leftward surge in opinion polls that could once again deny Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper a majority in Parliament and perhaps end his five years in power.
Harper, who took office in 2006, has won two elections but never with a majority of Parliament’s 308 seats, forcing him to rely on the opposition to pass legislation.
Until last week, most polls indicated Canadian voters would give the Conservative government at least another minority mandate and perhaps even a majority.
But recent polls show a late surge for the New Democratic Party, making it one of the country’s most unpredictable elections in recent memory.
The left-center vote could end up splitting between the New Democrats and Liberals, allowing Harper to eke out a majority. If Harper is held to another minority, a new scenario has emerged in which the New Democrats and the Liberals together win enough seats to form a New Democrat-led coalition.
“We can change the government. We’re not just going to oppose Mr. Harper, we’re going to replace him,” said New Democrat leader Jack Layton, whose party has socialist roots.
Ekos, a private polling company, gave the Conservatives 34.6 percent, the New Democrats 31.4 per cent and the Liberals 20.4. The pollsters said they questioned 3,268 people with a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points. A series of other polls have reported similar results.
“It’s a complete shocker,” Nelson Wiseman, a professor at the University of Toronto said of what is been dubbed the “orange wave” of New Democrat support. Orange is the party’s color. “It really is quite remarkable. You could never tell in the first weeks that this would happen.”
The New Democrats’ gains are being attributed to leader Jack Layton’s strong performance in the debates, a folksy, upbeat message and a desire by the French-speakers in Quebec, the second most populous province, for a new face.
