When new Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, during a visit to Afghanistan earlier this month, declared that “we’re within reach of strategically defeating al-Qaeda,” some observers scoffed. Wasn’t he just trying to justify the administration’s decision to reduce the number of troops there, as well as capitalize on the killing of Osama bin Laden?
But now The Washington Post has confirmed, in a report published last week, that experts in the CIA and other intelligence agencies agree with Panetta’s assessment. Thanks to bin Laden’s death and a steady toll from months of drone attacks, al-Qaeda is on “the brink of collapse.”
Game over in the war on terror? Hardly, for the obvious reason that Islamic jihadists by no means take their directives exclusively — or even primarily — from al-Qaeda. But the crippling of the organization that engineered the 9/11 atrocities and numerous other murderous attacks over the years is nonetheless a milestone worth noting with appreciation.
Not only has al-Qaeda been a font of deadly schemes here and around the world, it has provided inspiration to free-floating extremists hatching plans of their own. Driving it to the edge of extinction is a warning to all terrorists: Any spectacular act of violence in this country will provoke the relentless pursuit of those responsible, even if it takes a decade and no matter where you may hide.
Unfortunately, even if al-Qaeda is destroyed, the jihadist mentality that it helped to spread will not disappear any time soon. Plots against the U.S. may not be as elaborate or as ambitious as in the group’s heyday, but they will continue. A RAND Corp. study last year found that of 46 incidents of “domestic radicalization and recruitment to jihadist terrorism” occurring from Sept. 11, 2001, through the end of 2009, only one-quarter involved links to al-Qaeda or other major international terrorist groups.
Meanwhile, the report said, “Many of the jihadist recruits . . . began their journey on the Internet,” where jihadist sites will remain sources of inspiration whatever al-Qaeda’s fate.
It’s also important to remember, as the RAND report explains, “There is no long mile between the terrorist wannabe and the lethal zealot. A group of young hotheads angrily banging their fists on the table needs only one very determined, reasonably competent individual to propel them down a deadly path.”
Such was the case, for example, in the 2005 London subway bombings that killed 52 people.
But maybe we’re getting slightly ahead of ourselves. Al-Qaeda may be reeling, but its second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahri, survives. And the al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen, led by Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born cleric who was in contact with Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan before his murderous attack at Fort Hood two years ago, remains a scorpion with a deadly sting.
Despite encouraging success against al-Qaeda, in other words, the U.S. is in no position to ease up on the pressure now. Being “within reach” of defeating al-Qaeda is not actually the same as doing so, which must remain this nation’s unwavering goal.
