WASHINGTON — In 2025, when the auto industry would be required to meet a 54.5 mile per gallon fuel economy target under the Obama administration’s new plan, the vehicles Americans buy may not look very different than those on the road today.
But what will be under the hood is another story, industry and environmental experts say.
From pickups and SUVs to hybrids and subcompact cars, almost every vehicle sold in the United States will likely boast the kinds of advanced technology now confined to only the most fuel-efficient.
While the new standard will be a big numerical step upward, experts say the secret to achieving it is not some huge breakthrough such as inventing a super battery or fuel made from bacteria. Rather, the key will be applying what’s already known or on the drawing boards to almost every vehicle, not just a relative handful.
“You have to look at a vehicle not just as one thing that will put you over the goal line but all sorts of different things that will help you,” said Richard Truett, a Ford spokesman. “We have a head start on that. But everyone has to do it.”
Not every truck and SUV will have to get the higher mileage. The standard applied to the so-called fleet average, a complex calculation of the combined fuel efficiency of all the vehicles sold by a manufacturer in a model year. That means some gas-guzzlers can still be sold; they just have to be offset by a larger number of highly efficient cars.
After weeks of intensive talks at the White House with regulatory agencies, carmakers, the state of California and environmentalists, President Barack Obama on Friday outlined a plan for boosting fuel economy standards beginning in 2017 and reaching a fleetwide average of 54.5 mpg by 2025.
The new requirements build on rules starting for model year 2012 that seek to push up fuel economy to 34.1 mpg by 2016. The more efficient cars and trucks also are expected to drive down the greenhouse-gas emissions linked to climate change.
Right now, the U.S. fleet of passenger vehicles averages only about 27.8 mpg.
Automakers and the state of California have voiced support for the 2025 plan.
Environmentalists want assurances
After a meeting at the White House last week, environmentalists also offered tentative support, adding that they need more details about closing what they say are loopholes that automakers have used in the past to avoid the most stringent targets.
“After decades of inaction, President Obama is ensuring we see significant improvements to new vehicles and that is significant for both cutting our addiction to oil and curbing global warming,” said Ann Mesnikoff, director of the Sierra Club’s green-transportation campaign. “However, we have not seen the oil savings and greenhouse-gas reductions yet — and those are the critical measures of the program.”
Skepticism about the efficacy of new mileage targets stems in part from how they are derived and applied. The conditions for testing fuel economy have only a limited similarity to real-world driving: Cars run in a lab at a steady speed, with the air conditioner and radio turned off.
Moreover, each carmaker will probably have a different standard applied to it by regulators — following a political concession made in 2007 to get the support of domestic automakers.
That would mean General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, whose fleets are filled with big vehicles, will probably have to meet a lower average fuel-economy standard, while companies such as Honda and Hyundai, which tilt toward smaller vehicles, have a higher fuel-economy requirement.
For years, as energy prices fluctuated, many consumers continued to buy larger, less efficient vehicles. Some simply liked the size or power. Others wanted room for families or towing capacity for boats or trailers.
And many use pickups and large vans in their work.
But sharply higher gasoline prices may be changing that calculus. And manufacturers, as well as many economists and environmentalists, now believe gasoline prices will remain robust as China, India and Brazil industrialize and stoke demand for fuel.
As a result, carmakers are developing technology that sharply improves what the market already has, although work on technological breakthroughs continues.
Companies such as Ford are focusing on improving internal-combustion engines by making them smaller to boost mileage by saving weight, then outfitting them with direct-fuel injection and turbo chargers to give them power.
At the same time, industry experts say that hybrid technology will become more widespread and cheaper. And automakers will turn to advanced materials, such as carbon fiber or high-strength steel, to make cars lighter.
Ford, for instance, plans to take 250 to 750 pounds off its vehicles between 2013 to 2017.
“The stuff we’re talking about is already in leading-edge engines, and it will get cheaper as companies and suppliers compete for customers,” said John DeCicco, faculty fellow at the University of Michigan Memorial Phoenix Energy Institute.
F-150 EcoBoost surpasses sales goals
The appeal of revised technology can be seen in the sales of Ford’s F-150 EcoBoost full-sized pickup. The F-150 model is the country’s most popular passenger vehicle. The EcoBoost technology improves its fuel efficiency only by one or two mpg, though the improvements are more significant with lighter vehicles like the 2012 Explorer.
The F-150 EcoBoost has a smaller engine, turbo charger and direct fuel injection. It costs $750 more than the regular F-150 but can tow about 3,000 pounds more than its less-efficient cousin, an important consideration now that high gasoline prices have pared down buyers to those who need them for work, not a rugged image.
After its introduction six months ago, the F-150 EcoBoost now accounts for 41 percent of all F-150 sales.
“It has blown away all of our internal forecasts,” Truett said. “No one saw this coming.”
The European Union plans to achieve a fleetwide average of 65 mpg by 2020, further nudging carmakers to push efficiency.
Numbers
27.8 Current average gas mileage for the U.S. fleet of passenger vehicles
34.1 Average gas mileage that the American fleet must reach by 2016
54.5 Average gas mileage that the U.S. fleet must reach by 2025
