CERNOBBIO, Italy — Business leaders and finance experts who were gathered in Italy offered a downbeat assessment of the global economy Friday — with several predicting another recession because of a calamitous cocktail of sluggish growth, euro-zone dysfunction and financial market volatility.
The year’s events — from natural disasters and violent uprisings to fears of debt defaults — have not only sent shock waves through the financial world but also caused a slump in confidence among consumers and industry.
“There is a significant probability of a double-dip recession,” New York University economist Nouriel Roubini said in opening remarks that lived up to his nickname of “Dr. Doom” — earned for forecasting a financial crisis years before the 2008 crash.
On this occasion, Roubini seemed to reflect prevailing sentiment at the annual Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of an overcast Lake Como, although some felt that at least the emerging economies and a few countries in northern Europe would do fine.
Much of the concern focused on the United States.
“The numbers that we’ve seen recently for the U.S. on manufacturing, on construction, on consumers’ sentiment tell me that the odds have gotten much greater that the U.S. is going to continue to decline and that we are going to be in a formal recession before the end of the year,” Harvard economics professor Martin Feldstein told The Associated Press.
