Having avoided preemption by a presidential address, the debate of hopefuls for the Republican presidential nomination looms tonight as a critical event on the party’s primary calendar.
All eight candidates are under pressure to perform, yet that pressure isn’t evenly distributed, and the participants don’t all have the same burdens and opportunities on debate night. So who has to do what to be a winner?
Although many have suggested that Texas Gov. Rick Perry — participating in his first debate of the race — has the most work to do, in fact, just the opposite is true. Perry does have a long way to go before his front-runner status is cemented, but in this debate, he needs to establish only one thing: sure-footedness.
No candidate since Wesley Clark in the Democratic primaries in September 2003 has leapt so quickly from entering the race to the front of the polls. As the debate-preparation coordinator for the Clark campaign, I remember those heady and anxious days. Like Clark in the fall of 2003, Perry in 2011 is drawing support from many voters who have never heard him utter more than a sound bite or two — a tenuous position.
Perry’s mission, then, is to do nothing that unnerves these newly acquired supporters in their first extended exposure to him. He must sound sharp on economic matters and reassuring on national-security concerns. Having come so far, so fast, Perry probably cannot gain ground in the debate; his focus needs to be on making sure he doesn’t make major gaffes that imperil his status.
By contrast, the performance burden falls most heavily on the previous front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In the months before Perry got in the contest, the Romney campaign lost its edge by adopting the political equivalent of a prevent defense in the first quarter of a football game. Unprepared for what hit them, the Romney camp has floundered since Perry came on the scene.
Romney has lurched to the right, in a doomed effort to compete with Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota on their turf. As a result, he is losing the “strength” primary to Perry, as the Texan appears comfortable with his more natural positioning, while Romney seems uncertain and weak in his newfound conservatism. Romney needs to use the debate to reclaim the middle ground, showing that he can stand up to Perry and Bachmann instead of trying to emulate them.
Perry has made outrageous statements, even by the standards of the Republican primary electorate. Only by taking on Perry’s extremism can Romney arrest his opponent’s momentum.
Bachmann, too, finds herself under pressure, albeit for a very different reason. She has raised the bar for herself with her success in earlier debates: Mere competence (what Perry must demonstrate in his first outing) won’t be enough to ensure a successful night for Bachmann. Unlike Romney, who needs to aim his fire upward at Perry, Bachmann needs to take her shots at two candidates who are nipping at her from behind: former executive Herman Cain and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are rarely lumped together, but they share a common task tomorrow: avoiding irrelevance. Thus, the preparation that most candidates engage in for debates — polishing expertise, crafting answers, preparing for oddball questions — is of no importance to them.
Will Perry spin out? Will Romney reclaim the middle of the road? Can Bachmann put distance between herself and Cain and Paul? Something — someone — is going to have to give ground.
Ron Klain is a former chief of staff to Vice President Joe Biden and senior adviser to President Barack Obama on the Recovery Act.
