Folks in the NFL don’t argue with the numbers spinning on the scoreboards these days. Not because they don’t want to, but because they really can’t.
Through three weeks, offenses have scored the most points and thrown for the most net yards passing and the most passing touchdowns of any season in league history. No fewer than 10 teams are averaging at least 400 yards a game, and if most of them hold pace this week, that will set another record. Six is the highest number of teams that have averaged at least 400 yards through the first four games of any season.
“I’ll just wait and see what it looks like,” Broncos coach John Fox said. “It’s been three weeks, the weather changes, people adjust. Running the ball and defense is still going to be important for the teams who want to be the one happy team when the season’s over.”
Through all of the pain that defensive coaches have suffered this season, there are some quality defensive matchups on this weekend’s docket. The best is the Steelers-Texans affair. The Steelers are No. 7 in scoring defense — No. 2 in yards allowed per game — while the Texans, in Wade Phillips’ 3-4, are No. 9 in scoring defense. The Ravens (No. 1 in scoring defense) and Jets (No. 12 in scoring defense) meet in Baltimore, while the Cardinals (No. 8) meet the Giants (No. 9).
Must-see game of the week
Steelers at Texans 11 a.m., KCNC-4
The skinny: The Texans are searching for that defining victory that marks them a legitimate threat to make the franchise’s first playoff trip. After a 2-0 start, they didn’t make it happen last week against the Saints and now get a chance in the Steelers’ first trip to Houston since 2005. The Steelers have been shaky at times this season and are an uncharacteristic minus-9 in turnover margin. Their defense, usually a turnover factory, has yet to intercept an opposing passer.
The difference will be: If the Texans can rise to the moment and play a quality game when the circumstances call for it. The Texans had a 26-17 lead early in the fourth quarter against New Orleans last Sunday before their revamped defense surrendered three touchdowns in the final 14 minutes. Particularly galling was that two of the Saints’ fourth-quarter drives went 80 and 93 yards. The Steelers have won eight of their last 10 games on the road, including last Sunday night in Indianapolis.
The call: Texans 24-21
Catch them if you can
Lions at Cowboys 11 a.m., KDVR-31
It’s no fun for a quarterback with a cracked rib to face any defense, but the Lions are particularly tough on opposing passers, even when they don’t get the sack. Their aggressive, upfield scheme will be looking to harass Tony Romo. Detroit also knocks the ball out plenty — the Lions are tied for fourth in the league with five forced fumbles. This game could be their formal coming-out party as well.
The call: Lions 27-21
Bills at Bengals 11 a.m.
The Bills have won the last 10 meetings, including a 49-31 victory in Cincinnati last season when they scored 35 unanswered points in the second half. Some believe this is the game where the Bills show some immaturity after their big win over the Patriots last week, but for that to be true, the Bengals will have to figure out how to slow down the league’s highest-scoring offense — 37.7 points per game.
The call: Bills 31-28
Patriots at Raiders 2:15 p.m.
The Patriots have a rather remarkable streak going, having scored at least 30 points in 11 consecutive regular-season games. QB Tom Brady’s 1,327 yards passing in the opening three weeks represents the highest total by any quarterback in any three-week span in league history. The Raiders have the running game to win this one, but they have to pound it well enough to keep Brady off the field.
The call: Patriots 33-20
Jets at Ravens 6:15 p.m., KUSA-9
If recent history means anything, this one has the potential to be an island of defensive perspective in a season that has been nothing but offensive fireworks. The last time these two played — September of last season — the Ravens scored the game’s only touchdown for what was a 10-9 win. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is 20-5 in home starts in his career with 32 TD passes.
The call: Ravens 14-13
Quick hits
Panthers at Bears 11 a.m.
The Bears haven’t protected QB Jay Cutler well, and their run game has been dismal. They don’t try very much — they’re last in the league in rushing attempts — and haven’t gotten much going when they have given it to a back, sitting at 31st in yards rushing per game.
The call: Bears 23-17
Titans at Browns 11 a.m.
The Titans have the No. 1 defense in the league in the early going, allowing just 261 yards per game. Good thing, because their offense has been decidedly out of sorts.
The call: Titans 23-14
Saints at Jaguars 11 a.m.
With Jacksonville having tossed rookie QB Blaine Gabbert into the fray, this has the makings for an ugly afternoon. The Jaguars are 31st in the league in scoring (9.7 points per game), and the Saints can pile on the points on almost any defense.
The call: Saints 35-13
Vikings at Chiefs 11 a.m.
It’s not too early to dub this the Andrew Luck Bowl, with the loser getting the inside track at the Stanford QB in next April’s draft.
The call: Vikings 13-10
49ers at Eagles 11 a.m.
Eagles QB Michael Vick has promised all week he will play, but coming off a serious concussion to go with a severely bruised nonthrowing hand, there is some question how long he would be able to stay on the field. The 49ers figure to go after him.
The call: Eagles 27-17
Redskins at Rams 11 a.m.
Look for Redskins coach Mike Shanahan to work rookie RB Roy Helu into more things on offense. Shanahan likes the rookie’s explosiveness and the 5.7 yards per carry.
The call: Redskins 27-21
Giants at Cardinals 2:05 p.m.
The Giants asserted themselves in the NFC East race by dumping the Eagles last week. Giants QB Eli Manning has just one career start against the Cardinals in Arizona, having thrown for 240 yards and three TDs in that 2008 outing.
The call: Giants 24-17
Falcons at Seahawks 2:05 p.m.
It is somewhat surprising the Falcons have not only limped out of the gate, but that Mike Smith’s team is also one of the league’s least patient teams on offense, having run the ball just 58 times (that’s 31st in the NFL).
The call: Falcons 20-17
Dolphins at Chargers 2:15 p.m.
The Dolphins have been in self-destruct mode since the team tried to hire Jim Harbaugh as coach before firing Tony Sparano. Pile on the nontrade for Kyle Orton to go with their current defensive struggles and it’s a recipe for a mess.
The call: Chargers 31-24
