1. Will the Brewers’ home-field dominance continue?
Doesn’t seem possible, but the Brewers were 40-41 at Miller Park in 2010. This year? Try 57-24, the best home mark in baseball. And sure enough, they found a way to grind out three more wins in their playoff series vs. the D-backs. What’s been the difference? The Brewers always hit at home, but they’ve pitched well there in 2011, they hold a 3.42 home ERA compared with 4.51 last season. And no one has prospered at Miller Park more than today’s starter, Zack Greinke, who has been a tale of two pitchers: 11-0, 3.13 ERA at home vs. 5-6, 4.70 on the road. Greinke was warming up in the bullpen during Friday’s all-hands-on-deck series clincher, but wasn’t used. You wonder if that could prove to be the difference in this series.
2. Who’ll win the battle of the bullpens?
The Brewers’ rotation is remarkably deep, witness their 73-43 record with a 3.78 ERA, and Cardinals starters have manned up (62-42, 3.81) in the absence of Adam Wainwright. But which team will prevail in the late innings? Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has worked his usual miracles with a bullpen that includes a relative no-name closer in Fernando Salas (24 saves, 2.28 ERA). Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been lights out in the pen since acquiring would-be closer Francisco Rodriguez (4-0, 1.86 in 31 appearances) to set up John Axford, he of the franchise-record 46 saves. Brewers relievers at the all-star break: 12-20, 3.75. Brewers relievers since the break: 11-3, 2.43.
3. Which free agent-in-waiting will step up bigger?
Maybe it was meant to be, this rematch of 1982 World Series combatants. The series also includes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, who loom as the two biggest names on this winter’s free- agent market. The Cardinals’ advancement to the NLCS could clinch Pujols’ return to St. Louis. But Fielder is a virtual lock to leave, perhaps to Florida, where he lives and where the Marlins are opening a new ballpark in 2012. Pujols battled injuries for much of the season, but finished at .299-37-99, barely missing his 11th consecutive .300-30-100 season. Fielder? He’s a terror at the plate, especially at Miller Park, where he hit .326-24-67 vs. .272-14-53 on the road. And you thought only Rockies hitters produced lopsided home/road splits.
SPOTLIGHT ON . . .
Chris Carpenter, RHP
Carpenter had to save the Cardinals against the Phillies last week, and you wonder if he’ll have to do it again in this series. Tony La Russa, when asked by reporters how often he hoped to use Carpenter vs. the Brewers: “Two days rest four times.” That won’t happen, but Carpenter, if he pitches twice in the series, may well have to win both times for the Cardinals to have a chance. Don’t let those 11 wins fool you. At 36, he remains a horse. He led the league in innings pitched and is 95-40 in his six healthy seasons with the Cardinals. Not bad for a guy who had Tommy John surgery in 2007.
Prediction
Cardinals in seven. Yes, the Brewers have the home-field advantage, but you have to like the La Russa-Duncan quinella. And you have to like the Cardinals’ chances in a close game with Yadier Molina, the best defensive catcher in the business, behind the plate.
