TUNIS, Tunisia — As the land that launched the Arab Spring heads into historic elections next week, all eyes are on the long-repressed Islamists — and whether a big victory for them will irrevocably change this North African nation and inspire similar conservative movements around the region.
Many fear that despite vows to uphold democracy, Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda Party is bent on imposing a theocracy that would roll back hard-won secularism and women’s rights. Others see an opportunity to bring a moderate form of political Islam into the Arab world — one styled after the ruling party in thriving Turkey.
The Ennahda Party was crushed by dictator Ben Ali in the 1990s, a policy approved by Western powers wary of militant Islam. Now, in the election Sunday, it is set to become the largest party in the assembly that will write the nation’s new constitution — largely because it is the best-organized force.
In January, Tunisians stunned the world with a month-long uprising that overthrew Ali, inspiring similar revolutions across the Middle East.
How the country’s nearly 100 political parties compete in elections and work together afterward will be key for Tunisia and other countries such as Egypt and Libya, which followed Tunisian protesters’ lead and overthrew their own dictators.
Unlike many Islamist groups in the region, Ennahda has pledged to champion democratic values and women’s rights, but secular critics warn the party has a secret agenda to impose hard-line Islam.
“We seek a consensus with the other parties because we believe that Tunisia must have a coalition government for the next five years, because the situation in the country cannot be handled by a single party,” said party founder Rachid Ghannouchi.
“They engage in double talk, progressive and reactionary, to pursue a double strategy, both peaceful and violent,” said Hamadi Redissi, co-founder of the Geneva-based Center for Arab Research and Analysis.
Some Western observers say the party’s mixed message may be more old-fashioned electioneering than an insidious plot to trick Tunisia into a theocracy.
“For electoral purposes, they need Ennahda to be a fairly big tent,” said Chris Alexander, a Tunisia expert at Davidson College in North Carolina.
