Relax, folks. Those of you who view college football through a 21st century lens and thought Saturday’s 9-6 LSU-Alabama game reminded you more of English Premier League soccer, don’t worry too much about a rematch.
If voters have their way and follow history, it shouldn’t happen. Alabama fell from second to third in Sunday’s BCS rankings behind No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Oklahoma State, but ahead of No. 4 Stanford, No. 5 Boise State and No. 6 Oklahoma.
Logic says all Alabama would need is for Oklahoma State to lose to Oklahoma in the regular-season finale Dec. 3 and, voilu, it’s LSU and Alabama 1-2 again in the BCS championship game.
While the Heisman Trophy race is pretty simple, an LSU-Alabama rematch is not. The coaches and Harris poll voters, who make up two-thirds of the BCS formula, don’t think like computers.
“I think people are disinclined to give a rematch, just because,” said Jerry Palm, the Schererville, Ind.-based BCS analyst who runs . “The people who were kind of on the fence are probably thinking, ‘Well, LSU won at Alabama.’
“If you’re going to think, ‘Why should they play them again?’ you could make an argument if LSU lost. They had to play them on the road. They could say, ‘All right.’ But they already won in Tuscaloosa. ‘Let’s appoint somebody else.’ “
The computers, which make up the other third of the formula, may still like Alabama at season’s end. LSU is tied with Oklahoma State for first and Alabama is third in the computers today.
But since the BCS began in 1998, voters have never ranked a team as high as second if it didn’t win its conference. Nebraska in 2001? Nope. It finished second in the BCS rankings but the AP and USA Today polls, part of the formula then, voted it fourth. The computers had it second, and polls carry more weight today.
“People will be thinking what they’re voting,” Palm said. “Right now they’re not thinking about it. Voters have no short-term memory or long-term vision. They’re voting on this week.”
The same could apply to Oregon if it beats Stanford and finishes near the top of the BCS just under LSU. Voters would again have to vote on a rematch. After LSU walloped the Ducks 40-27 in the season opener in Arlington, Texas, Oregon won’t get a second look.
One school, however, might: Boise State.
“They have a better chance than they’ve ever had of getting into the game,” Palm said.
The little program that could may finally overcome the awful company it keeps in its conference. Oklahoma State and Stanford must lose, of course, and if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, it might pass Boise in the computers.
However, it would be left to the voters to put unbeaten Boise State or one-loss Oklahoma against LSU. Remember, in Boise State’s one difficult game, it whipped Georgia in Atlanta 35-21.
Checked out Georgia, 15th in the BCS, lately?
“The better that Georgia does, the better it is for Boise, not because of computers but because of perception,” Palm said. “If Georgia wins out and goes in (to the SEC championship game) and gives LSU a bit of a fight, people might say: ‘Georgia gave them a game. Let’s see what Boise can do.’ “
The Heisman race isn’t nearly as intriguing. Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck must fall on his face against Oregon or somehow get upset in the final two games against California or Notre Dame, both at home.
In Sunday’s ‘s Heisman Watch, Luck received 14 of 15 first-place votes from its experts panel. Alabama tailback Trent Richardson received the other one. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, Houston quarterback Case Keenum and Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones fill out the top five.
Since the Heisman Trophy has a knot tied around team accomplishments, Stanford must lose for anyone else to have a chance. The Cardinal is a three-point favorite over Oregon.
John Henderson: 303-954-1299, johnhenrome@hotmail.com,
