The Iowa caucuses boosted the campaign of former Sen. Rick Santorum and prompted Rep. Michele Bachmann to call it quits. And though there are several unanswered questions as Republicans look for a nominee, little exists to suggest it won’t be Mitt Romney.
Romney is no doubt cheering news that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will remain in the race, increasing the likelihood that the former Massachusetts governor could have the nomination wrapped up before Colorado’s caucuses on Feb. 7.
Having finished a distant second in Iowa in 2008, Romney benefited Tuesday from a deeper field that split the conservative vote. That allowed him to narrowly claim first place despite receiving nearly the same number of votes as four years ago.
And though he left Iowa with his front-runner status intact, the results highlight divides among Republicans that must be worked through before they set out to unseat a potentially vulnerable Democratic president.
First, Santorum’s strong showing signals that social conservatives and evangelicals are skeptical of Romney, who must now fight the charge that that he can’t earn more than 25 percent the vote. And he’ll have to do it with Newt Gingrich, and possibly others, disavowing Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment to not speak ill of other Republicans.
Romney’s endorsement Wednesday from Sen. John McCain was no doubt intended to bolster his inevitability argument, but many Republicans are still sour on the 2008 nominee and have vowed to see a “true conservative” nominated this time.
It appears they will choose between Santorum, Gingrich and — after he returned to Texas for further reflection — Perry.
The most impressive part of Santorum’s second-place Iowa showing is that he embraced the so-called “retail politics” that supporters of a system that lets two small states winnow the field have long advocated.
He is the latest from a large field to move into the top tier, but can he remain there as his record is now scrutinized? And is it too late to build a national campaign?
And what of Ron Paul? The libertarian finished third in the caucuses, doubling his Iowa totals from 2008. He has the money and organization to compete for quite some time, but few other than his own supporters give him a shot at the nomination.
In fact, the bigger issue may be whether the party can keep Paul in the fold rather than see him launch a third-party bid that would almost certainly hand Obama a second term.
And where do Tea Partyers, who dominated the 2010 mid-terms, go from here? Perry no doubt sees them as his opportunity to mount a comeback in South Carolina that would launch him into Florida at month’s end, but given his performance on the national stage, it’s harder for others to fathom the possibility.
Finally, given that every candidate has seemingly had a turn as the non- Romney, is there any conceivable way that Jon Huntsman’s strategy to ignore Iowa and bet everything on New Hampshire can pay off?
Tuesday’s results don’t rule out a scenario in which the nomination is contested for several more months as Republicans search for their answers.
But if Romney remains ahead in New Hampshire and can top a crowded field in South Carolina Jan. 21, it’s hard to see how he wouldn’t see the Jan. 31 Florida primary as the final chance to cement himself as the GOP nominee.
