NEW YORK — The nation’s largest retail trade group expects a solid 3.4 percent increase in sales this year, below last year’s 4.7 percent increase as job woes weigh on shoppers.
Sales should reach $2.53 trillion in 2012, up from last year’s $2.45 trillion, boosted in part by higher prices across all goods, according to a report today from the National Retail Federation.
The 3.4 percent bump would still outpace the 10-year annual average increase of almost 3.1 percent and would also mark a third consecutive year of recovery for consumer spending. Sales slumped 3.5 percent in 2009 with the nation feeling the effects of the recession. However, sales gains remain well below the 5.5 percent or more that the country would typically see in better times.
“The forecast is a reflection of the economic conditions. Things have gotten modestly better, but we still have a long way to go,” said Matthew Shay, president and chief executive of the retail group.
The retail-sales forecast, which excludes sales of autos and gas and at restaurants, was shaped by a variety of economic head winds. Consumer confidence, while rising, is still below what would be considered healthy. The unemployment rate reached its lowest level in nearly three years in December, but it’s at 8.5 percent. And those who have held on to jobs are seeing paltry wage gains.
