WASHINGTON — The number of black and Latino registered voters has fallen sharply since 2008, posing a challenge to President Barack Obama’s campaign in an election that could turn on the participation of minority voters.
Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Latinos has dropped significantly.
That figure fell 5 percent across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Latinos, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28 percent in New Mexico, for example, and about 10 percent in Florida.
For both Latinos and blacks, the large decrease is attributed to the ailing economy, which forced many Americans to move in search of work or because of other financial upheaval.
“The only explanation out there is the massive job loss and home mortgage foreclosures, which disproportionately affected minorities,” said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan policy group that focuses on Latinos. “When you move, you lose your registration.”
Political strategists and election experts are divided on whether registrations will rise to their previous levels. But the prospect of a tight race between Obama and Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, has placed great importance on getting eligible Americans to register and vote.
In the 2008 election, robust turnout among black and Latino voters is credited with putting Obama over the top in key swing states such as Virginia and New Mexico.
The decline in minority registration “is obviously an area of concern,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a left-leaning think tank.
The GOP also is watching the shifting voter registration numbers, tracking active Republican voters in swing states and making sure they are still registered. In some places, the number of voters registered as Republicans is catching up with Democrats.
“We have really closed the gap in key battleground states,” said Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski, pointing to the relative parity Republicans have with Democrats in Iowa and Colorado.
5 percent
Drop in registered Latino voters across the country, to about 11 million
7 percent
Drop in registered black voters, to just more than 16 million
6 percent
Drop in registered white voters, to 104 million
