Consumers could see some relief from higher food prices by late fall, if the latest government crop forecast holds up.
The Agriculture Department predicted Thursday that corn production will total 14.8 billion bushels, with a record yield of 166 bushels per acre. That compares with 12.4 billion bushels a year ago.
It also increased an estimate for corn stockpiles at the end of this August to 851 million bushels, from 801 million bushels, noting that some of this year’s crop may be ready for use earlier than normal because of a fast start to the planting season. Corn exports between September and August 2013 were forecast at 1.9 billion bushels. The agency said it expects more demand from China.
Corn futures prices fell 3.3 percent Thursday to finish at $5.875 per bushel.
The forecast is the first at the beginning of the growing season. Many things could affect the outcome, such as a hot, dry summer.
If the prediction proves true, however, corn prices will fall, and that probably will mean lower supermarket prices for products that use corn, such as cereal and soft drinks sweetened with corn syrup. Beef and pork prices could fall, too, because producers would pay less to feed their animals.
“This would set the trend for six months from now for prices to be cheaper,” said Jason Ward, an analyst with Northstar Commodity.
The government has forecast an increase of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in overall food prices for 2012.
