The political conventions behind them and three debates ahead, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney now race against the calendar toward Nov. 6.
They have two months to deploy millions of dollars in ads, catch those voters who cast ballots weeks before Election Day and log umpteen miles in a handful of crucial states — all while worrying what surprising news or candidate slip-up might set the whole enterprise on its ear.
Obama and Romney have huge staffs to help keep it all straight, of course. But you don’t. So, for the rest of us, a user’s guide to the last leg of the 2012 presidential campaign:
THE POLLS
So far, polls show a tight race. But forget everything you’ve heard so far. In polling, only the newest numbers count — and the numbers capture a clearer picture beginning in September. It’s time to pay attention.
One obvious reason: Summer fun is over, and voters are finally following the campaigns. Polling from the Pew Research Center in 2008 showed the share following the campaign “very closely” more than doubled from 28 percent in late August to 57 percent just before Election Day. With the public more attuned to day-to-day developments, the potential for big shifts in the polls is amplified.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Money is a huge factor in this election and one of the hardest to track.
The presidential race is expected to cost $2 billion or more, between official campaign expenses and super-PAC ad spending. It’s the first election since federal courts unraveled rules that had restricted how money could be spent in political races.
Outside groups can raise and spend unlimited sums of cash with the help of millionaires and billionaires who sometimes hide their identities as donors.
Romney and his super-PAC allies have spent more than $245 million on ads since the general-election campaign began in early April, according to advertising tracking data obtained by The Associated Press. By comparison, Obama and super PACs working in his favor have spent roughly $188 million since April.
JOBS, JOBS, JOBS
This race is all about jobs and the economy, so government reports and stock-market swings take on outsize importance. The Labor Department reported sluggish job growth Friday, as employers added 96,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July, but that was only because more people gave up looking for work.
The Labor Department will release two more monthly jobless reports, including one four days before Election Day.
Also, watch the Federal Reserve’s actions next week. It could significantly boost the sluggish economy by announcing a third round of bond purchases designed to push long-term interest rates lower.
CONGRESS
Congress returns for two weeks Monday but will probably steer clear of the big election issues: taxes, deficits, health care, the economy and jobs. Its biggest task is passing a $524 billion spending bill to keep federal agencies operating through next March and prevent any possibility of a politically explosive government shutdown before the election.
Issues that might spill into the presidential race: disagreements over drought relief for livestock producers — an issue important to rural voters in swing state Iowa and elsewhere — and an increase in food-stamp funding, which Republicans oppose.
DEBATES
The race is so tight that one misstep in the three presidential debates could greatly influence who wins.
• The first debate, on Oct. 3 in Denver, focuses on domestic policy.
• Two weeks later, on Oct. 16, Obama and Romney meet for a town-hall-style session in Hempstead, N.Y.
• On Oct. 22, two weeks before the election, foreign policy is the topic for the last presidential debate, in Boca Raton, Fla., a swing state critical for the candidates.
And on the undercard, Vice President Joe Biden debates GOP candidate Paul Ryan on Oct. 11 in Danville, Ky.
LINGO TO KNOW
Swing states: States with a recent history of swinging their vote from one party to the other in presidential elections. They include Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia.
Battleground states: States where one or both sides are spending money on TV ads, staff on the ground, candidate visits and so forth, either in hopes of winning or to force the other side to spend money playing defense. So far this year, that’s all the swing states, plus Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
EARLY VOTING
Obama’s 2008 victory leaned heavily on early voting, which is now possible in 32 states and the District of Columbia.
His campaign mobilized thousands in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa — all states he won on his way to the presidency.
This time, Obama and Romney are hoping to build up the early vote in the coming weeks. Early voting begins Sept. 27 in Iowa. Look for the candidates and the campaigns to focus heavily on states in the days leading up to their early votes.
AN OCTOBER SURPRISE
OK, it could come in early November too. But watch for unexpected news in the final weeks of the race that could shift things in either candidate’s favor. Past surprises have touched on major events — developments in the Vietnam War, the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran-Contra probe — and less weighty ones, such as George W. Bush’s two-decades-old drunken-driving arrest.
