BRUSSELS — Faced with a newly aggressive Russia, NATO has been mulling how to react, but it is ruling out one option: rapid expansion.
Four would-be members, including the former Soviet republic of Georgia, have been informed that admission to NATO isn’t in the cards anytime soon. For some, that means dashed hopes. Macedonia’s foreign minister told The Associated Press in a statement it was a “step backward.”
The bottom line: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, celebrating important anniversaries this year of a dozen nations joining its ranks, will welcome no new members when President Barack Obama and other leaders convene for a summit in Wales in early September.
Analysts say NATO members are worried about granting, or being perceived as granting, security guarantees that could be tested by Russia. That’s particularly true of Georgia, which has been waiting since 2008 for the U.S.-led military alliance to make good on its promise of admission.
NATO is reluctant to take any action that might provoke a riposte from Moscow.
“The conflict over Ukraine has made it clear to them at NATO they have to be careful, both about security commitments and credibility,” said Liana Fix, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “If you give Georgia their membership action plan but don’t defend them if something happens, what does it say about your credibility?”
NATO won’t publicly hang up the “No Vacancy” sign. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the alliance’s secretary general, proclaimed recently that “NATO’s door remains open. And no third country has a veto over NATO enlargement.”
In Wales, Georgia had been hoping to receive a formal action plan for membership, but instead will be given a “substantive package” to help move it closer to NATO, Rasmussen said. He declined to give details.
The small Balkan nation of Macedonia will also have to wait. The former Yugoslav republic Montenegro is widely considered the candidate closest to achieving membership.
The fourth country classified as a NATO aspirant is Bosnia-Herzegovina.
