One hundred and 12 points. A Central Division championship. The second-best record in team history. A team with multiple NHL trophy winners.
The 2013-14 season was a tremendous one for the Avalanche. The Central Division is fashionably called the most competitive in the NHL, if not all of pro sports. The Avs, one season after finishing 29th overall, earned the third-most points in the NHL and return with the core cast largely intact with some talented veteran additions.
So why doesn’t anybody believe in the Avs yet? Why has the word “fluke” been tossed around by hockey’s chattering class?
Maybe it was because of their first-round loss to a lower-seeded Minnesota team in the first round of the playoffs. Maybe it was because their goal differential (plus-30) was better than only two of the eight Western Conference playoff teams. Maybe it was because of their relatively poor numbers when judged by hockey’s new breed of sabermetrics.
While a little more credit for last season might be nice, the Avs under second-year coach Patrick Roy know they won’t get any real respect until they prove they can win in the playoffs. The team has won only one playoff series since 2008, and if there is an unofficial motto for this season, it should be: “Time to get over the playoff hump.”
But first, the Avs have to negotiate their way through the Navy SEAL-style obstacle course that is the Western Conference regular season. If this were the East, we could pencil the Avs into the postseason. Not so in the West.
Offense
If the preseason is the guide, Avs fans should panic right now. Colorado scored only 10 goals in eight preseason games. But, barring a sudden tilt in the earth’s axis, this should be a team that scores a lot of goals.
Ryan O’Reilly takes over as Paul Stastny’s replacement as a top-two center, with Nathan MacKinnon moved back to right wing. Career 560 goal-scorer Jarome Iginla will help make up for Stastny’s loss to free agency. Then there are Matt Duchene, Gabe Landeskog and Alex Tanguay.
The nervousness entering the season isn’t about the top six forwards, but the bottom six. With John Mitchell and Jamie McGinn out with injuries (both could be back soon), the third and fourth lines are a worrisome grab bag. Veteran Daniel Briere, a career 299 goal-scorer, will be counted on to turn back the clock in the first month and beyond. But that is a worry, having to rely on a 37-year-old player. None of the rookie hopefuls made much of an impact on the coaching staff in the preseason, so the pressure is really on the top six.
The offense from the defense — pretty good last season, led by Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and Nick Holden — should be good again.
Defense
While the rest of the hockey world continues to point a finger in the blue line’s direction as the team’s biggest weakness, privately Avs’ management believes this is a better defensive team than a season ago. The additions of Brad Stuart and Zach Redmond add more stability, they believe, and Johnson, Barrie and Holden are a pretty decent top three.
They won’t be the best defense in the league, but it seems like there is more of a foundation in place on the back end.
Johnson, the minutes leader on the team last season, has gotten considerably better playing under Roy. He needs a little more help from the others this time.
The loss of Stastny could hurt defensively, as Duchene and MacKinnon were exploited at key times up the middle. The forwards need to remember that the defense needs their help.
Special teams
The power play should be fine — with MacKinnon, Duchene and Iginla down low on the first unit and Barrie and Johnson moving the puck from the point. Briere, a great passer out of the half-boards, could be a key asset on the second unit. O’Reilly, Landeskog and Tanguay all know what to do with the puck in outnumbered situations.
But what about the penalty-kill unit? It hasn’t been good in years, at least statistically (80.7 percent last season, 24th overall), and there is little to get excited about. The Avs need to clear the puck better, win more faceoffs in their own end and protect the weak side better on the penalty kill. If they don’t improve on any of that, it’ll continue to be a major problem in getting to the next level as a team.
Goaltending
Semyon Varlamov is coming off his best pro season (41-14-6, 2.41 goals-against average, .927 save percentage). He arguably has the best lateral quickness of any goalie in the league, and under Roy and goalie coach Francois Allaire, he has improved tremendously on the fundamentals (rebound control, positioning, glove-hand technique). The Avs appear to be in good hands for the next five years in net — the length of his contract.
Backup Reto Berra? Based on the numbers, he is a major worry as Varlamov’s backup. But the Swiss native played pretty well in the preseason. Then again, the games didn’t count. He still has a lot to prove.
Coaching
Roy played the “we’ve got nothing to lose, let’s shock the world” card last season. His challenge now is guiding a team with real expectations on it when opponents aren’t looking past the Avs anymore.
