With 2016 now looming on the electoral calendar, Colorado politicians are absorbing November’s tough lessons and moving on to a new season.
Underlying it all is a fundamental unease about the economy that has greatly empowered independent voters and stripped many of the party-in-power advantages from the White House.
Despite a string of positive economic reports, voters are growing frustrated with both Congress and President Obama for post-recession gridlock in Washington. Jobs and taxes may have replaced social issues — guns, abortion, gay rights — as the hot buttons for middle- and working-class voters.
“Nearly a third of Americans, 31 percent, say their newly elected representatives should not focus on a specific issue, but rather on fixing the way Congress operates, including paying more attention to constituents, compromising and getting things done,” wrote Frank Newport of Gallup in a post-election wrap-up.
In his commentary, Newport noted that 20 percent of Americans want their representative to focus on some area of the economy, such as jobs, wages, the budget or taxes. In contrast, Gallup polling showed that no more than 7 percent of Americans want their representative to focus on issues that are less closely tied to the economy such as immigration, health care reform or fighting terrorism.
By most econometric measures the economy is doing well; Colorado can claim that with a jobless rate of just 4.3 percent it has essentially reached full employment. But this is not the 1990s and individuals’ confidence in their own economic situation is lagging. The unease is partly a reflection of the trauma inflicted by the Great Recession: those who lost their jobs have not made up lost income; millions whose home equity was wiped out or who lost homes have not fully recovered.
The lack of confidence also reflects stagnant wages. One piece of evidence for this odd phenomenon is that average pay fell about 1 percent in large Colorado counties from 2012-2013 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Rising health care and education costs are eating into middle-class budgets, while mortgage credit has been substantially restricted, reducing the ability to achieve the American dream of home-ownership. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates ultra low has stripped billions of dollars in interest income from the elderly and those living on savings.
No one wants to go back to the bubble conditions of the housing boom, but the housing market is in a bit of a straitjacket. The government still exerts tremendous influence over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is putting down rules that prevent many reasonably qualified borrowers from getting or refinancing a mortgage.
The next elections may turn on two key issues that are directly related to the Gallup results.
First is a desire for a smaller and more efficient government. The public wants its money spent effectively — particularly when it comes to new initiatives such as the Affordable Care Act or responding to crises in Ukraine, Syria or Iraq.
In that regard, President Obama’s decision to resort to executive orders on issues such as immigration and the environment may only further the public’s fears of government reaching deeper into everyday life. On immigration, millions are counting on swift and effective action and not just more paperwork.
Second is a desire for a compromise on taxes and the federal budget that puts aside the endless threat of government shutdowns and puts money to work addressing problems such as infrastructure and responding to external threats.
Ironically, the American economy, growing at a healthy 3.5 percent to 4 percent clip, is the world leader at the moment. And in a nation where wealth is unevenly distributed, falling gasoline prices have given even the most financially strapped families — and those living on fixed incomes — a bit of a break.
Eyeing the positive numbers and demographic trends, Democrats can see signs of a turnaround. They can expect a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in their party’s turnout in 2016, with young and minority voters participating in much bigger numbers. But that may not be enough.
Winning candidates will also have to strike the right tone on the economy — one that recognizes America’s great comeback offers a tool kit to help those left behind. And for the first time in more than a decade, getting to the winning circle may require politicians to do something they’ve been reluctant to do for a decade or more: reach across the aisle and forge compromises that give the public confidence that the system actually works.
To read previous installments of Henry Dubroff and John J. Huggins’ occasional series on the nation’s fiscal issues, go to denverpost.com/dubroff.
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