What a telling and confounding Oscar season we’ve had. As of Tuesday, the races have been decided by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science’s 6,000 voting members. Now it’s a matter of PricewaterhouseCoopers tallying and keeping mum as we head toward a Best Picture cliffhanger. (As for the meaning of what turned out to be one of the more contentious lead-ups to Hollywood’s biggest night, read the Sunday Denver Post.)
Director Richard Linklater and his tender wonder “Boyhood” won Golden Globes and more recently BAFTAs (Britain’s Oscar equivalent). But wait. Two weeks ago, the Directors Guild bestowed its highest honor on Alejandro G. Iñárritu for “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).” In an equally neck-and-neck race: Michael Keaton captured a Golden Globe for his naked portrayal of a super-hero star seeking a second act on Broadway, but so, too, did Eddie Redmayne for his exceptional portrayal of Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything,” because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s ridiculous but hard-to-discount accolades are given out for best drama and musical or comedy.
And so it has gone throughout this award season, starting back in December with the National Board of Review’s best film announcement — “A Most Violent Year.”
Now all is set to be revealed Sunday when the 87th Academy Awards get underway. (Live telecast on ABC, Channel 7, starting at 5 p.m) Meanwhile, it’s time to hazard guesses about who will hoist Oscars. Herewith are this year’s likely victors and potential spoilers. This list comes with the usual caveat: I have yet to win an Oscar pool. Ever.
Best Picture
Will win and should win: “Birdman”
Spoiler alert: “Boyhood”
Best Director
Will win and should win: Alejandro Gonzales Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Spoiler alert: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Best Actor
Will win and should win: Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Spoiler alert: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
Best Actress
Will win and should win: Julianne Moore for her portrayal of a professor with early onset Alzheimer’s in “Still Alice”
No spoiler here.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win and should win: J.K. Simmons for his turn as a sadistic music conservatory jazz ensemble leader in “Whiplash”
Spoiler alert: Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Best Supporting Actress
Will win and should win: Patricia Arquette for her depiction of an often-single mom in “Boyhood.”
No spoiler here.
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: “Citizenfour,” Laura Poitras’ portrait of NSA leaker and fugitive Edward Snowden
Should win: “Virunga,” director Orlando von Einsiedel’s gripping film about the fight to safe Virunga National Park in the midst of civil war and oil and mineral grabs.
Spoiler alert: “Virunga”
Best Foreign Language Feature
Will win and should win: “Ida”
Spoiler alert: Argentina’s sly, darkly funny crowd-pleaser “Wild Tales.” Personal note: As a champion of “Ida” the only film I’d be OK with upsetting Pawel Pawlikowski’s drama about a Catholic novitiate learning her parents were Jewish and were killed during WWII would be “Timbuktu,” Abderrahmane Sissako’s just as poetic and quietly haunting drama about a herdsman, his family, and a community dealing with jihadists.
Best Animated Feature
Will win and should win: “How To Train Your Dragon 2”
Spoiler alert: If voters choose not to honor a sequel, look to Tomm Moore’s hand-drawn, spell-casting Irish tale, “Song of the Sea.”
Cinematography
Will win and should win: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
Spoiler alert: Robert Yeoman for “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson’s tale of a legendary concierge, his trusted lobby boy and a stolen piece of artwork.
Film Editing
Will win and should win: Sandra Adair, “Boyhood”
Spoiler alert: Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Original Song
Will win and should win: “Glory” from “Selma”
Spoiler alert: “I’ll Be Me” from the Glen Campbell documentary “I’ll Be Me.”
Original Screenplay
Will win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Should win: “Birdman”
Spoiler Alert: “Birdman”
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “The Imitation Game”
Should win: “The Theory of Everything”
Spoiler alert: Paul Thomas Anderson’s adapation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Inherent Vice.”
Lisa Kennedy: 303-954-1567, lkennedy@denverpost.com or
More online: For the entire list of Oscar predictions — including the pesky tie-breaking shorts.
Best Picture nominees by film reviews
Just for fun, here are the nominees for Best Picture, as ranked by film-review aggregator .
“Boyhood” 100 score; 30 critics
“Selma” 89 score; 46 critics
“Birdman” 88 score; 49 critics
“Whiplash” 88 score; 49 critics
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” 88 score; 48 critics
“The Imitation Game” 73 score; 49 critics
“The Theory of Everything” 73 score; 47 critics
“American Sniper” 72 score; 48 reviews
Best Picture nominees by box-office gross
As of Feb. 16:
“American Sniper” $392,858,000
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” $174,600,318
“The Imitation Game” $157,146,682
“The Theory of Everything” $98,449,000
“Birdman” $72,201,000
“Selma” $48,494,000 domestic
“Boyhood” $44,379,000
“Whiplash” $11,426,092
