MEXICO CITY — The vast majority of Cubans welcome warmer relations with the United States, holding high expectations that closer ties pledged by the two countries will shake up the island’s troubled economy, according to a new survey of Cuban citizens.
But they are doubtful that the diplomatic detente will bring political reforms to their Communist country.
The poll of residents on the island shows that people are unhappy with the political system, eager to end the U.S. embargo and disenchanted with their state-run economy. More than half of Cubans say they would like to leave the country for good if they had the chance.
The survey, conducted in March through 1,200 in-person interviews by the Miami-based Bendixen and Amandi International research firm on behalf of the networks Univision Noticias and Fusion, is reported in collaboration with The Washington Post.
With its restricted media and limited Internet and phone access, getting an accurate sense of public opinion in Cuba can be difficult. Public surveys are very rare, as opinion research is strictly controlled by the Cuban government.
On the island, Cubans have an aversion to discussing politics. Three-quarters of those surveyed in the Univision poll say they thought they needed to be careful about expressing themselves.
So the Univision poll provides a rare glimpse of Cuban opinion at a historic time, given the changing relations with the United States. The survey was conducted without government authorization by local Cuban residents who were trained in survey interviewing. Thirty-nine percent of households where interviews were attempted completed the survey.
A near unanimous majority — 97 percent — say a better relationship with the United States will benefit Cuba. Nearly the same percentage of Cubans say the economic embargo should end.
Since Raul Castro took over as president from his brother in 2006, the Cuban economy has incrementally added dashes of free-market capitalism to the periphery of its government-run system. Cubans can buy and sell houses and operate some small businesses. More than half say an immediate family member owns a business, and seven in 10 would like to start one. Asked in their own words what Cuba needs most right now, the most common response — at 48 percent — is an improved economy.
“My sense is Cubans are still very positive about the agreement,” said Geoff Thale, program director at the Washington Office on Latin America. The Cuban government, he said, faces the challenge that people’s expectations for change won’t be met quickly. “If you’re a Cuban living in central Havana, you won’t see improvements in your daily life for some time to come.”
